经济学人：法国，又燃烧了

作者：经济学人      来源：一天一篇外刊

FRENCH HISTORY has long been marked by upheaval and revolt. The republic established by Charles de Gaulle in 1958 erupted a decade later in the student protests of May ’68; the following year the general resigned. Emmanuel Macron faced months of widespread and violent demonstrations by gilets jaunes (yellow jackets) in 2018-19; the president sent armoured vehicles rolling over the cobblestones of the capital to restore order. Yet the apocalyptic scenes of torched civic buildings and looting in cities across France on October 17th were in some ways worse: they could lead the country into even greater division, and hand voters at next spring’s presidential election a choice between two extremes.

法国历史向来不乏动荡与反抗。1958年，戴高乐建立法兰西第五共和国。十年后的1968年5月，法国爆发了学生抗议运动，次年，戴高乐便辞去总统职务。2018年至2019年，埃马纽埃尔·马克龙遭遇了持续数月、席卷全国且伴随暴力冲突的“黄背心”运动。为了恢复秩序，法国总统甚至派出装甲车辆，让它们驶过巴黎的鹅卵石街道。然而，今年10月17日，法国各地城市公共建筑遭到纵火，商店被洗劫一空。从某些方面来看，这场动乱比以往更为严重。它可能进一步加剧法国社会的分裂，使选民在明年春天的总统选举中，只能在两个极端之间作出选择。

Some of the looting and vandalism may have been opportunistic. Yet many of those who turned up fully hooded, wearing ski goggles and face masks, were clearly out to pick a fight, and seemed organised to do so, in order to undermine confidence in the government and the police. Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of the populist-left Unsubmissive France (LFI), denies responsibility for this, and blames the police for the disorder. The government, however, has no doubt about who is encouraging the troublemakers: LFI, which it accuses of “exploiting” the protests for political ends and seeking to make France ungovernable. Sébastien Lecornu, the centrist prime minister, warned that the extreme left is using the violence as a “warm-up round” for the presidential election.

有些人可能只是趁着混乱哄抢财物、打砸破坏。但另一些人显然是有备而来，他们蒙着头，戴着滑雪护目镜和口罩，摆明了是来挑起冲突，目的就是动摇公众对zf和jf的信心。民粹主义左翼政党“不屈法国”（LFI）的领导人让-吕克·梅朗雄否认对此负有责任，反而将骚乱归咎于jf。然而，法国政府认定，煽动这些闹事者的正是“LFI”。政府随即指责该党利用抗议活动“谋取zz利益”，企图让法国陷入无法治理的境地。法国中间派总理塞巴斯蒂安·勒科尔尼警告说，极左翼正在把这场暴力事件当作总统选举前的“热身赛”。

On one side, supporters of Mr Mélenchon, who joined the demo in Paris, look at the more peaceful protests and see a muscular show of strength for their champion, who is running for president on the populist left. Yet supporters of Marine Le Pen, who is standing on the populist right, regard the protests as evidence that Mr Mélenchon is unfit for office and that Mr Macron cannot control the country. As the centre struggles to find a compelling candidate to succeed the president, polls suggest that the finalists at the two-round election next April and May could well be Mr Mélenchon and Ms Le Pen. If so, she would be almost certain to win.

一边是参加了示威的梅朗雄支持者。在他们看来，那些抗议活动展现了强大的声势，也彰显了他们所支持的zz领袖的实力。作为民粹主义左翼的代表，梅朗雄正准备竞选总统。而另一边，代表民粹主义右翼的玛丽娜·勒庞的支持者却认为这些抗议活动恰恰证明了梅朗雄根本不适合担任总统，也说明马克龙已无力掌控目前的局面。与此同时，中间派阵营迟迟找不到一位有足够号召力的人选来接替马克龙。民调显示，在明年4月至5月举行的两轮总统选举中，最终进入决选的很可能是梅朗雄和勒庞。如果真是这样，勒庞几乎肯定会赢得选举。

There is a France that was not on the streets on Saturday, and knows what needs to be done. This silent constituency was out again in the terrace cafés in the late-autumn sunshine the day after the riots; one waiter in Bordeaux described the violence as “scandalous”. But the extremes are masterful at drowning out that voice. Unless the centre can find a persuasive way to tell a more responsible story, about the need for order in the public finances and on the streets, voters will end up with no choice at all.

还有许多人没有在上周六走上街头，他们清楚，眼下真正需要解决哪些问题。骚乱发生后的第二天，深秋的阳光洒在露天咖啡馆的露台上，平日里鲜少发声的人又坐回那里，享受着寻常的午后时光。波尔多的一位服务员谈起这场暴力骚乱时，直言：“简直令人愤慨。”然而，zz光谱两端的极端势力，却很善于让这些声音淹没在喧嚣之中。如果中间派无法找到一种更有说服力的方式，向选民阐明一条更负责任的道路，既要整顿国家财政，也要维护街头秩序。那么最终，选民恐怕只能在两个极端之间作出选择。

作者：经济学人      来源：一天一篇外刊