经济学人：“黑粉”大战，欧美已经开始纷纷设限

作者：经济学人      来源：一天一篇外刊

The European Union worries about China’s vast exports of cheap electric vehicles. On October 12th it said that in December a quota of 350,000-a-year would be imposed on hybrid EV imports from China. This is expected to halve their market share. But the bloc also frets about China’s dominance over the supply of critical minerals used to make these vehicles.

欧盟一直对东大大量出口的低价电动汽车心存忧虑。10月12日，欧盟宣布，将从今年12月起对从中国进口的混合动力电动汽车实施配额限制，年进口量上限为35万辆。此举预计将使相关车型在欧洲市场的份额减半。然而，令欧盟更加忧心的，东大在电动汽车关键矿产供应领域占据的主导地位。

A fast-growing number of EVs will soon be scrapped and replaced. Shredding their batteries yields “black mass”, a powder from which valuable metals such as lithium, cobalt and nickel can be recovered and reused. From next month the EU will make it harder to export this waste. The aim is to encourage more processing of black mass close to home (at the moment most is shipped to Asia). In August America, which has banned Chinese EVs but still imports lots of Chinese batteries, blocked all black-mass exports.

未来，随着越来越多的电动汽车陆续达到报废年限，废旧电池的回收利用也将变得愈发重要。电池经过粉碎处理后，会产生一种名为“黑粉”的粉末，其中的锂、钴、镍等有价值金属可以被提取出来，重新加以利用。从下个月起，欧盟将收紧这类废弃物的出口限制，旨在推动更多黑粉在欧洲本土进行加工处理。目前，这类废料大多被运往亚洲。美国则采取了更为严格的措施：今年8月，美国全面禁止黑粉出口。值得注意的是，美国虽然已经禁止进口东大电动汽车，却仍然大量进口中国电池。

China, however, is unlikely to suffer. Black mass might make up 20-30% of global demand for battery metals by 2050, says the International Energy Agency, a forecaster. So China is supercharging its recycling industries: not just to shore up supplies of battery metals, but also rare-earths and much else. The goal is to make its economy less “linear” (where raw materials are made into products which are then thrown away) and more “circular” (closing the loop so recycled waste replaces raw materials).

不过，这些限制恐怕难以对中国造成多大影响。国际能源署（IEA）预测，到2050年，从废旧电池中回收的黑粉所能提供的金属，或可满足全球电池金属需求的20%至30%。因此，中国正在加速发展回收产业，不仅要保障锂、钴、镍等电池金属的供应，还要回收稀土及其他各类资源。中国的目标，是推动经济从“线性”模式转向“循环”模式。所谓线性经济，就是将原材料加工成产品，产品使用后便被丢弃；而循环经济则致力于打通资源利用的闭环，让回收所得的废弃物重新成为生产原料，减少对原生资源的依赖。

Still, now that America and Europe want to keep their valuable waste, could they eat into China’s recycling dominance? Zhang Yuping, the deputy general manager of GEM, a big Shenzhen-listed battery-recycler, thinks not. “From the perspective of national security, they might have some justification,” he says. But the cost of recycling outside China would be high and scaling up difficult. Europe, at least, “can’t digest” such a challenge, reckons Mr Zhang. “They would pay a heavy cost.” 

不过，既然美国和欧洲都想把这些有价值的废弃物留在本土，它们能否削弱中国在回收领域的主导地位？深圳一家大型上市电池回收企业格林美（GEM）的副总经理张宇平并不这么认为。他表示：“从安全的角度来看，他们这么做或许有一定道理。”但他指出，在中国以外的地区开展回收业务，成本会很高，要扩大产能也并非易事。至少在张宇平看来，欧洲还“消化不了”这样的挑战。他认为：“他们将为此付出沉重的代价。”

作者：经济学人      来源：一天一篇外刊