经济学人：全球化已死——从精英治理到权力游戏

作者：经济学人        来源：一天一篇外刊

 WHEN a schoolyard is taken over by bullies, what are model pupils to do? Something like that quandary is now playing out in the global economy. Since returning to power in January, President Donald Trump has treated trade partners with the swaggering cruelty of a sixth-form tyrant. This marks a change from his first presidency, when American officials acted as harsh disciplinarians. Back then, Trump aides called countries cheats for running trade surpluses with America. They demanded structural reforms from countries like China, accused of stealing American jobs and technologies by abusing world trade rules.

当校园落入恶霸之手时，好学生如何自处？如今，类似的困境正在全球经济中上演。自今年一月重掌权力以来，特朗普对待贸易伙伴的态度，就像一个高年级恶霸一样傲慢而粗暴。这与他第一任期时有所不同。在第一任期内，美国官员像是严厉的训导主任。特朗普的助手把一些对美存在贸易顺差的国家斥为“作弊者”，指控它们滥用世界贸易规则，窃取美国的就业与技术，并要求像东大这样的国家进行结构性改革。

In the second age of Trump, rules are out and the boss’s whim is in. No country has been spared tariffs, even those that run trade balances in America’s favour. This arm-twisting era is ghastly for many governments. It is painful in a special way for high-achieving countries that top league tables for competitiveness or ease of doing business. For such star pupils, late-20th-century globalisation felt like a form of meritocracy. Hard work and wise planning could give an ambitious nation a chance to find its niche in the global economy, transforming its fortunes. Now, over-achieving governments are realising that the old economic order has gone. In its place, they fear a fragmented and inefficient world economy, in which investments and supply chains are guided by politically motivated tariffs and geopolitical rivalries, or Trumpian caprice

但在特朗普的“第二个任期”里，规则早已被抛诸脑后，取而代之的是他的个人意志。没有哪个国家能逃过关税的打击，哪怕是对美国保持贸易顺差的同伙也不例外。这个“强硬施压”的时代对许多小国来说都极其难受，而对于那些在竞争力或营商便利度排名中名列前茅的国家而言，更是格外刺痛。对于这些“好学生”来说，20世纪末的全球化曾像是一种精英赛制：勤奋与明智的规划能让一个有抱负的国家在全球经济中找到立足之地，进而改写命运。然而，如今他们不得不接受现实——旧的经济秩序已经消逝。取而代之的，是一个支离破碎、效率低下的世界经济：投资与供应链不再遵循市场逻辑，而是受制于政治算计的关税、地缘政治的对抗，甚至是特朗普的反复无常。

Some of the clearest thinking about this swot’s predicament can be heard in Singapore, a paternalist city-state that has risen from poverty to great wealth with the help of hard work, diligence and lots of rules about civilised behaviour—like a giant prep school with its own army and airport. The Telegram recently travelled there to meet government officials as they celebrated their republic’s 60th birthday in a very Singapore-ish way, with policy conferences and leaders’ speeches about the global order.

关于目前的“好学生”困境，一些最清晰的思考可以在新加坡看到。这个家长式管理的城邦国家，依靠勤奋、刻苦和一整套关于文明行为的规训，从贫困跃升为富裕，就像一所自带军队和机场的巨型预备学校。《电讯报》近日前往新加坡，采访了该国官员——他们正以一种极具“新加坡特色”的方式庆祝新加坡成立60周年：举办政策研讨会，以及聆听领导人有关全球秩序的演讲。

Singaporean elites sound anxious and disappointed. Their country set out to be the meritocrats’ meritocracy. Over six decades Singapore drained swamps and cleared slums to create a squeaky-clean, multicultural showcase of skyscrapers and social-housing towers, container ports and high-tech industrial parks, governed by graduates from the finest universities on earth. When older industries declined, Singapore “upskilled”, investing in such sectors as biomedicine and advanced gas-turbine maintenance. Those thrived alongside large financial and services firms.

然而，新加坡的精英们听后演讲焦虑而失望。这个国家曾立志成为“精英中的精英治国典范”。六十年来，填平沼泽、清理贫民窟，建起一座整洁有序的多元文化外界展示窗口：高楼与公共住宅并立，港口与高科技产业园齐驱，治理者皆是来自世界顶尖大学的毕业生。当旧产业式微时，新加坡果断“提升技能”，将投资投向生物医药与先进燃气涡轮维护等领域，并与庞大的金融和服务业一同蓬勃发展。如今，这个曾经的“模范生”却不得不担心：在特朗普主义与地缘对抗主导的世界里，再多的勤奋与规划，是否还足以换来公平的机会？

Singapore’s prime minister, Lawrence Wong, warned citizens to brace for turbulence at a national-day rally on August 17th. “For decades, Singapore benefited from an American-led rules-based global order. It was not perfect. But it brought peace and stability to the world. And because the rules applied to all, even a small city-state like ours could compete fairly,” he declared. Today, America is pulling back and weakening multilateral systems, undermining old rules and norms and encouraging more countries to chase “narrow, immediate gains over shared progress”, he added.

8月17日，在国庆群众大会上，新加坡总理黄循财警告国民要做好迎接动荡的准备。他表示：“几十年来，新加坡受益于美国主导的、以规则为基础的全球秩序。这套秩序并不完美，但为世界带来了和平与稳定。正因为这套规则对所有人一视同仁，所以才能让像我们这样的小城邦国家也能公平竞争。” 他补充说，如今，美国正在收缩并削弱多边体系，破坏旧有的规则与规范，鼓励更多国家追逐“狭隘而短期的利益”，而非共同进步。

作者：经济学人        来源：一天一篇外刊