特朗普如何用14枚炸弹改变中东局势

作者：一天一篇外刊         来源：一天一篇外刊

HE CAME, he bombed, he ended the war—or so President Donald Trump wants the world to believe. Two days after a fleet of stealthy American bombers struck deeply buried Iranian nuclear facilities, Mr Trump announced a “complete and total” ceasefire in the war between Israel and Iran. “I would like to congratulate both Countries, Israel and Iran, on having the Stamina, Courage, and Intelligence to end, what should be called, ‘THE 12 DAY WAR,’” he wrote on his Truth Social site.

他果断采取行动，派遣轰炸机，结束了这场战争，特朗普乐意让世人相信他就是这么屌。在一支隐形美军轰炸机编队对伊朗的地下核设施实施精确打击两天后。特朗普宣布以色列和伊朗之间“全面”停火。特朗普在Truth Social发文称："我向以色列和伊朗两国祝贺，正是两国展现的坚韧、勇气与智慧，为这场本被命名为'十二日战争'的冲突画上了句点。

Reports said Mr Trump had first secured Israel’s agreement to the ceasefire, then sent the proposal to Iran via Qatari intermediaries. Mr Trump said Iran would halt hostilities first, followed by Israel 12 hours later. Each side “will remain PEACEFUL and RESPECTFUL,” he explained. He later told NBC News he expected the ceasefire to last “forever”. Shares rose and oil prices fell as Iran’s foreign minister said there was no formal deal but said Iran would stop if Israel did. But as the deadline expired an early morning volley of Iranian missiles was reported to have killed three people in southern Israel, in what it must be hoped was a defiant final salvo.

据报，特朗普先促成以色列对停火协议的认可，继而通过卡塔尔向伊朗递交和平方案。根据披露的细节，伊朗将率先终止军事行动，十二小时后以色列将同步履行停火条款。在接受NBC新闻专访时，特朗普进一步预言此轮和平将"永久存续"，并强调双方需恪守"和平共处、彼此尊重"原则。伊朗外长虽否认签署正式协议，但暗示若以色列停火则伊方将同步响应。此消息推动股市上涨、油价回落。然而就在停火生效前夕，伊朗于破晓时分发动导弹袭击，造成以色列南部三人遇难——人们家冀望这只是协议落地前的最后波折。

The announcement is the latest in a series of startling twists since Israel launched a surprise assault on Iran on June 13th. Israeli jets and intelligence cells cleared away many of Iran’s air defences, assassinated nuclear scientists and generals, and began to destroy a widely dispersed nuclear programme that had brought Iran to the threshold of acquiring nuclear bombs. America swept in on June 22nd with “Operation Midnight Hammer”. B-2 bombers flew a 37-hour mission from Missouri to drop 14 GBU-57 “Massive Ordnance Penetrator” (MOP) bombs on uranium-enrichment sites at Natanz and especially Fordow. Perhaps 30 submarine-launched Tomahawks cruise missiles also struck a complex of nuclear facilities in Isfahan.

自6月13日以色列对伊朗发动突袭以来，这份声明是震惊转折中的最新一个。此次以空以军出动多型战机与特种作战部队，对伊朗核设施实施三阶段打击：首轮清除防空系统网络，次轮定点清除核科学家及军方要员，最终阶段则针对伊朗境内多处核设施展开系统性破坏——该计划已接近实现伊朗核武器制造能力。至6月22日，美军正式介入冲突，发起代号"午夜铁锤"的军事行动：3架B-2隐形战略轰炸机自密苏里州怀特曼基地升空，经空中加油支援执行超远程奔袭任务，向纳坦兹核燃料生产中心及地下深处的福尔多铀浓缩设施投掷14枚GBU-57巨型钻地弹；与此同时，潜伏波斯湾的美军潜艇发射约30枚"战斧"巡航导弹，精确打击位于伊斯法罕的核技术综合研发基地。

Iran responded the following day with token retaliation, firing 14 missiles—one for each American MOP—at the American air base at al-Udeid in Qatar. All but one was intercepted and, thanks to Iran’s early warning, nobody was injured,” posted the president. Two hours later he proclaimed the ceasefire.

次日，伊朗展开象征性反击，向美国驻卡塔尔乌代德空军基地发射14枚导弹——导弹数量与美军此前投掷的14枚GBU-57巨型钻地弹形成精确对应。特朗普总统在社交平台发文称："除一枚伊朗导弹突破防线外，其余导弹均被成功拦截，且因伊方提前通报袭击计划，此次报复行动未造成任何人员伤亡。"两小时后，白宫正式对外宣布停伊朗停火火协议生效。

J. D. Vance—the vice-president, who was in a Fox News studio when Mr Trump made the announcement—said the American raid had met its objectives. “We know that they cannot build a nuclear weapon.” Iran’s stock of enriched uranium had probably been buried in the attacks, he claimed.

当时，副总统J.D.万斯正身处福克斯新闻演播室，全程见证了特朗普总统宣布停火的历史性时刻。他在连线中强调，此次精确打击已达成既定战略目标："经多方验证，伊朗核计划遭遇毁灭性打击，其核武器研发能力已被彻底瓦解。"万斯进一步披露，根据战情评估，伊朗境内储存的武器级浓缩铀储备极有可能在美军空袭中被完全摧毁。

Three questions now hang over the region: can the ceasefire hold; will there be a follow-on diplomatic deal to restrict Iran’s nuclear programme; and will the Middle East become more stable after the war?

当前，伊朗悬而未决的三大核心问题包括：停火协议能否长期维持？为限制伊朗核计划，后续是否会达成外交协议？以及经历此次冲突后，中东地区能否实现持久稳定？

作者：一天一篇外刊         来源：一天一篇外刊