China Delays Truce Monitoring as Myanmar Junta’s Grip on Lashio Falters

缅媒：缅甸军政府对腊戍的控制动摇，中国推迟停火监督

作者：伊洛瓦底江           来源：伊洛瓦底江

MNDAA and Brotherhood Alliance flags adorn the archway to the northern Shan capital of Lashio in August 2024. / AFP

通往掸邦北部的拱门上装饰着MNDAA和兄弟会联盟的旗帜 2024年8月迁都腊戍。/法新社

China’s planned ceasefire monitoring office in Lashio, the capital of northern Shan State, remains unopened more than a month after it forced the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) to relinquish the city it liberated last year.

中国计划在北部掸邦首府腊戍设立的停火监督办公室，在迫使缅甸民族民主联盟军（MNDAA）放弃去年解放的城市一个多月后仍未开放。

In April, China’s special envoy to Myanmar, Deng Xijun, personally supervised the handover of the northern Shan capital to the military regime. The plan for an agency to monitor the truce between the junta and ethnic army has been delayed, a source close to the MNDAA told The Irrawaddy.

今年4月，中国驻缅甸特使邓锡军亲自监督了将掸邦北部首府移交给军政府的过程。一位接近民族解放运动的消息人士告诉《伊洛瓦底报》，成立一个监督军政府和少数民族军队之间休战的机构的计划被推迟了。

“Though China has not yet opened a ceasefire monitoring office in the city, I heard it is remotely instructing both the regime and MNDAA to avoid military engagement. I think China is waiting to see how the situation unfolds because it still doesn’t trust the regime,” the source said.

“虽然中国尚未在该市设立停火监督办公室，但我听说它正在远程指示缅甸政权和MNDAA避免军事接触。我认为中国正在观望局势如何发展，因为它仍然不信任军政权。”

The MNDAA is a member of the Brotherhood Alliance, which, alongside other resistance groups, launched the anti-regime Operation 1027 offensive across northern Shan State in October 2023.

MNDAA是兄弟会联盟的成员，该联盟与其他抵抗组织于2023年10月在掸邦北部发动了反政府的1027行动。

The alliance seized most of northern Shan State and key trade routes with China. Lashio, which housed the junta’s Northeastern Command, fell last August.

该联盟占领了掸邦北部的大部分地区以及与中国的主要贸易路线。去年8月，军政府东北司令部所在地腊戍失守。

Also delayed is the MNDAA’s plan to open a liaison office in Lashio headed by its local commander. The ethnic army currently runs a temporary liaison office in a village on the city’s outskirts, said the source.

同样被推迟的还有MNDAA在腊戍设立联络处的计划，联络处由当地指挥官领导。该消息人士称，少数民族军队目前在该市郊区的一个村庄设立了一个临时联络处。

“The MNDAA is still considering who to send and where to locate its office. Some comrades are unwilling to return to Lashio. It appears the MNDAA will have to renegotiate with the regime on this,” he said.

“MNDAA仍在考虑派谁去以及在哪里设立办事处。有些同志不愿意回腊戍。看来MNDAA将不得不就这个问题与政府重新谈判。”

The junta has yet to reestablish its North-Eastern Command, with troops currently stationed at the Lashio University campus and other battalions in the town.

军政府尚未重建其东北司令部，其部队目前驻扎在腊戍大学校园和该镇的其他营。

MNDAA forces remain in the surrounding countryside, running its administration based in Hopeik village. Patients in rural areas are being sent for treatment in MNDAA-controlled Hsenwi town.

民族解放运动的部队仍在周围的农村，在Hopeik村管理其行政机构。农村地区的病人被送往MNDAA控制的Hsenwi镇接受治疗。

After overseeing Lashio’s handover on April 22, the Chinese delegation returned to China the same day via the MNDAA-controlled Lashio-Hsenwi-Kunlong-Chin Shwe Haw road.

中国代表团于4月22日主持腊戍移交仪式后，于同日经MNDAA控制的腊戍-宣威-昆龙-钦瑞河公路返回中国。

MNDAA and Brotherhood Alliance flags adorn the archway to the northern Shan capital of Lashio in August 2024. / AFP

2024年8月，MNDAA和兄弟会联盟的旗帜装饰着掸邦北部首府腊戍的拱门。/法新社

China then reopened its border with MNDAA-controlled territories, resuming goods exports and the supply of electricity and internet. China previously closed all border crossings with MNDAA-held to pressure the ethnic armed group into halting its offensives against the regime.

随后，中国重新开放了与mndaa控制地区的边境，恢复了货物出口以及电力和互联网的供应。中国此前关闭了与mndaa控制的所有边境口岸，以迫使该民族武装组织停止对缅甸政权的进攻。

A female resident said the regime is still struggling to restore law and order in Lashio, with robberies and muggings rampant since its return.

一名女性居民表示，政府仍在努力恢复腊戍的法律和秩序，自回归以来，抢劫和抢劫猖獗。

“There have even been robberies near the police station. The regime has only been able to arrest thieves who stole power cables while doing nothing against armed robbers. Ordinary citizens dare not go outside at night,” she said.

“甚至在警察局附近也发生了抢劫案。该政权只逮捕了盗窃电缆的小偷，而对武装劫匪却无所作为。普通市民晚上不敢出门，”她说。

Prices of necessities have also surged after the regime increased taxes, she added.

她补充说，在政府增加税收后，生活必需品的价格也大幅上涨。

The regime has not moved to arrest teachers, medics, and administrators who worked under MNDAA rule. However, it has threatened to jail anyone who cooperates with armed groups.

该政权没有采取行动逮捕在MNDAA统治下工作的教师、医务人员和行政人员。然而，它威胁要监禁任何与武装组织合作的人。

Despite the junta’s return to Lashio, China’s border trade with Myanmar remains low key, as the MNDAA’s ally – the Ta’ang National Liberation Army – still controls the main trade hubs of Nawnghkio, Kyaukme and Hsipaw. The annual border trade, previously worth US$ 6 billion, between northern Shan State and Yunnan has been halted since the launch of Operation 1027 in October 2023.

尽管军政府回到了腊戍，但中国与缅甸的边境贸易仍然很低调，因为mndaa的盟友——达昂民族解放军（taang National Liberation Army）——仍然控制着瑙菁（Nawnghkio）、皎美（Kyaukme）和西掌（Hsipaw）等主要贸易中心。自2023年10月启动“1027行动”以来，掸邦北部与云南之间的年度边境贸易已经停止，此前的贸易额为60亿美元。

作者：伊洛瓦底江           来源：伊洛瓦底江