经济学人：中国汽车的崛起令人瞩目

作者：经济学人         来源：一天一篇外刊

 Styling, build quality and polish” were “frankly lacklustre”. The review in Car and Driver, a respected motoring publication, of a vehicle made by BYD on display at the Detroit Motor Show in 2009 was hardly encouraging for a car that its Chinese manufacturer hoped to start exporting to America in a few years.

2009年，《Car and Driver》杂志对比亚迪在底特律车展上展出的车型评测道：“造型、做工和精细度都令人失望。于比亚迪来说，作为一个国产品牌，收到这样的评价无疑会对他们计划将这款车出口到美国市场的期望造成很大的负面影响。

Since then the global automotive industry has been overhauled. China has taken a decisive lead as the world’s biggest manufacturer of cars. Despite its unpromising start, BYD has surpassed Tesla as the world’s largest maker of fully electric vehicles (EVs) by volume (and is far ahead when plug-in hybrids are included). The company has assisted in wresting China’s car market from once-dominant foreign competitors. At the same time, it and other Chinese firms such as Chery, Geely and SAIC have turned their country into the world’s top exporter of vehicles, speeding ahead of Germany and Japan.

从那时起，全球汽车产业经历了彻底改革。中国已成为全球最大的汽车制造国，且取得了决定性的领先地位。尽管比亚迪起步时前景不佳，但它已经超越特斯拉，成为全球最大的纯电动汽车（EV）制造商（按产量计算），当算上油电混动车（PHEV）在内时，比亚迪的领先地位更加明显。比亚迪还帮助中国从曾经占主导地位的外国竞争者手中夺回了国内汽车市场。同时，比亚迪和其他公司，如奇瑞、吉利和上汽，已使中国成为全球最大的汽车出口国，超越了德国和日本。

China’s carmakers now aspire to overthrow Volkswagen and Toyota at the pinnacle of the global car industry, says Pedro Pacheco of Gartner, a consultancy. Further expanding exports is central to that. The number of cars shipped abroad from China reached 4.7m last year, triple the amount three years earlier, according to Citigroup (around a third of these came from multinational brands with factories in the country). The surge is set to continue—in 2030 the bank reckons sales abroad will hit 7.3m.

咨询公司Gartner的Pedro Pacheco表示，中国汽车制造商希望推翻大众和丰田，登上全球汽车产业的巅峰。要想实现这个目标必须要扩大出口。根据花旗集团的数据，去年中国出口的汽车数量达到了470万辆，是三年前的三倍（其中约三分之一来自在中国设有工厂的跨国品牌）。这一增长势头预计将继续——花旗银行预测，到2030年，出口销量将达到730万辆。

That has led to much consternation among incumbent carmakers, with particular attention paid to the growing number of Chinese EVs on European roads. Yet the bulk of China’s car exports—nearly three-quarters last year—are powered by internal-combustion engines (ICEs). And most are aimed neither at western Europe nor America, but at the rest of the world.

现有的汽车制造商（如大众、丰田等）对中国汽车产业的崛起忧心忡忡，尤其是越来越多的中国电动汽车开始出现在欧洲市场上。尽管中国的汽车出口增长迅速，但大部分出口的汽车仍然是传统的内燃机驱动汽车，而不是电动汽车（EV）。去年，约有三分之三的中国出口车是内燃机车。此外，这些出口车辆的主要市场并不是西欧或美国，而是其他地区。

Car-carrying vessels are departing China’s ports in ever greater numbers in part because the domestic market, where 23m passenger vehicles were sold last year, is neither as fast-growing nor as profitable as in the past. Chinese consumers once opted mostly for foreign brands, but these days domestic carmakers account for around three-fifths of sales in the country. As Harald Hendrikse of Citigroup notes, at home “the Chinese have won”.

越来越多的运车船从中国港口出发，一部分原因是中国的国内汽车市场增速放缓，且不再像以前那样具有很高的盈利潜力。虽然去年中国销售了2300万辆乘用车，但与过去相比，市场的增长速度和盈利能力都不再那么强劲。曾几何时，中国消费者大多选择外国品牌，但如今国产汽车制造商占据了国内销售的约三分之二。正如花旗集团的Harald Hendrikse所指出的，在国内市场上，“中国已经赢了”。

Victory has come at a price, however. Creating a homegrown ev industry using subsidies and other government inducements has resulted in severe overcapacity. Chinese factories could perhaps turn out nearly 45m cars a year, equivalent to around half of all global sales, yet they operate at only 60% of that capacity, according to Bernstein, a broker. Oversupply has led to a vicious price war. Seeking an alternative outlet, Chinese carmakers have turned abroad. BYD, Geely and Great Wall have said that margins are five to ten percentage points higher on sales overseas.

胜利是有代价的。通过补贴和其他激励措施建立本土电动汽车（EV）产业，导致了严重的产能过剩。根据经纪公司伯恩斯坦的数据，工厂每年可能生产近4500万辆汽车，相当于全球总销量的一半，但它们的产能仅为60%。过剩的供应导致了激烈的价格战。为了寻找替代出口市场，中国的汽车制造商纷纷转向海外。比亚迪、吉利和长城汽车表示，海外销售的利润率比国内高出五到十个百分点。

 As the incentive to export strengthens, however, the opportunities to do so are diminishing. Last year the EU imposed tariffs on Chinese-made evs to combat what it regards as unfair subsidies. Chinese brands’ share of ev sales in Europe grew from around 4% in 2021 to 10% in 2024, but may now climb to only 11% by 2030, according to Schmidt Automotive Research, a consultancy. If that door is slightly ajar, others are firmly shut. Tariffs of 100% imposed during Joe Biden’s presidency in effect bar Chinese evs from America (a further levy of 10% on Chinese goods recently imposed by Donald Trump will not have much additional impact). Fierce loyalty to domestic brands in Japan and South Korea and rocky diplomatic relations with India have kept Chinese carmakers at bay in those countries.

 然而，随着出口激励的增强，出口的机会却在减少。去年，欧盟对中国制造的电动汽车（EV）征收了关税，以应对欧盟认为的不公平补贴。根据施密特汽车研究公司（Schmidt Automotive Research）的数据，中国品牌在欧洲电动汽车市场的份额从2021年的约4%增长到2024年的10%，但到2030年，可能只能达到11%。尽管某些出口市场（比如一些国家）可能还有一点机会，但其他重要的市场已经完全关闭。在乔·拜登总统任期内，征收的100%关税实际上就是想将中国电动汽车排除在美国。（唐纳德·特朗普最近对中国商品征收的额外10%的关税不会产生太大额外影响）。日本和韩国对本土品牌的忠诚都以及与印度紧张的外交关系，使得中国汽车制造商在这些国家难以进入市场。

Undeterred, these firms have shifted their focus to countries in South-East Asia, the Middle East, Latin America and even Africa. Although each is relatively small, taken together they account for 20m sales or more. Most are fast-growing, unlike rich countries or China, and do not have a big domestic industry that would lobby for protection. Emissions and other regulations are also not as strict, notes Felipe Munoz of JATO, another consultancy.

尽管面临挑战，中国汽车公司并没有放弃，而是把注意力转向了其他市场，特别是东南亚、中东、拉丁美洲和非洲的国家。这些地区的市场相对较小，但对于这些公司来说，仍然是潜力巨大的出口市场。这些国家大多处于快速增长阶段，且没有强大的本土产业进行保护主义游说。JATO咨询公司（另一家咨询公司）的费利佩·穆尼奥斯指出，这些国家的碳排放和其他相关法规也没有那么严格。

Chinese carmakers are powering ahead elsewhere. They now have 8% of the market in the Middle East and Africa, 6% in South America and 4% in South-East Asia, according to Bernstein, up from almost nothing a few years ago. The take-up rate of EVs in these countries is lower than in rich ones, and most of the cars Chinese firms sell are ICE models. But, having established themselves, their long-term aim is to electrify these markets, which legacy carmakers still regard as their ice fiefs.

根据伯恩斯坦的数据，中国汽车制造商在其他地区正迅速发展。如今，他们在中东和非洲市场的份额为8%，在南美为6%，在东南亚为4%，而几年前几乎为零。这些国家的电动汽车（EV）普及率低于富裕国家，大多数中国公司销售的仍是内燃机（ICE）车型。他们进入这些市场并逐渐站稳脚跟后，他们的长期目标是推动电动汽车（EV）的普及，逐步取代传统的内燃机汽车。而这些市场目前仍然由传统汽车制造商主导，他们依然将这些市场视为主要依赖内燃机技术的“领地”，并且不太关注电动汽车的推广。

Already evs are picking up speed in some unlikely places. In Latin America they now make up 6% of total sales, having doubled in 2024, according to BloombergNEF, a research firm. In Brazil, the world’s sixth-largest car market, it is nearly 7%, with nine out of ten EVs coming from Chinese brands. In Mexico EVs have hit 8% and in Thailand some 15% (by comparison, in America the share is 8%). The surge is set to continue. Overall, EVs will account for more than three-quarters of Chinese car exports in 2030, up from about a quarter in 2023,

电动动汽车（EV）在一些不太被看好地方开始迅速增加和普及。根据彭博新能源财经（BloombergNEF）的数据显示，在拉丁美洲，电动汽车的销量已经占到总销量的6%，并且在2024年翻了一番。在全球第六大汽车市场巴西，电动汽车的市场份额接近7%，且90%的电动汽车来自中国品牌。在墨西哥，电动汽车的市场份额达到了8%，在泰国则为15%（相比之下，美国的市场份额为8%）。这一增长势头预计将持续。总体而言，到2030年，电动汽车将占到中国汽车出口的四分之三以上，远高于2023年约四分之一的份额。

Building brands, signing on dealers and setting up service networks in smaller markets, even if it starts with ICE cars, will embed Chinese firms in these places. Elsewhere, it will be hard to distract car buyers from the allure of Chinese vehicles indefinitely. AutoExpress, a British motoring magazine, praises the BYD Seal, an electric saloon launched in Europe in 2024, for its “handsome, aerodynamic body and big power”, calling it a “very serious car”. How times have changed.

在规模较小的市场中，建立品牌、签约经销商并建立服务网络，即使是从内燃机汽车（ICE）开始，也将使中国公司在这些地方扎根。而在其他地方，想要长期让消费者忽视中国汽车的吸引力将变得越来越困难。英国汽车杂志《AutoExpress》称赞比亚迪海豹（BYD Seal）这款2024年在欧洲推出的电动轿车，认为它具有“俊朗的空气动力学车身和强大的动力”，并称时代变了。

作者：经济学人         来源：一天一篇外刊