Airstrikes Likely to Escalate if Junta-TNLA Talks Collapse

如果军政府与tnla谈判破裂，空袭可能升级（机译）

作者：掸邦先驱新闻社        来源：掸邦先驱新闻社

TNLA leaders check hand with local people.

TNLA领导人与当地民众协商。

Tensions are mounting as the Myanmar Military Junta and the Ta’ang (Palaung) National Liberation Army (TNLA) hold critical negotiations in Kunming, China. The talks, centered on military de-escalation and border demarcation, offer a rare opportunity for peace. However, residents fear that failure could lead to intensified airstrikes and further devastation.

随着缅甸军政府和塔昂（帕朗）民族解放军（TNLA）在中国昆明举行关键谈判，紧张局势日益加剧。以军事降级和边界划定为中心的会谈为和平提供了难得的机会。然而，当地居民担心，失败可能导致空袭加剧和进一步的破坏。

A resident from Kutkai described a harrowing experience on the night of February 17, when the military launched an airstrike on the TNLA-controlled Kutkai-Namtu border around 8 p.m., sending shockwaves through the community.

一位来自库特凯的居民描述了2月17日晚上的悲惨经历，当时军方在晚上8点左右对tnla控制的库特凯-纳姆图边境发动了空袭，给整个社区带来了冲击波。

“I heard a loud explosion last night. I don’t know exactly where it hit, but it shook everything. The junta is putting pressure on the TNLA. For us, airstrikes remain a constant threat. We never know when they will strike,” a local woman told SHAN.

“昨晚我听到一声巨大的爆炸声。我不知道它击中了哪里，但它震动了一切。军政府正在向TNLA施加压力。对我们来说，空袭仍然是一个持续的威胁。我们永远不知道他们什么时候会袭击。”

Negotiations between the two sides began on February 16, focusing on territorial disputes and military de-escalation. The TNLA has pushed for official recognition of the 10 towns and six sub-townships under its control as part of a future Ta’ang State. However, political analyst U Than Soe Naing believes an agreement is unlikely.

双方于2月16日开始谈判，重点是领土争端和军事冲突的缓和。TNLA已经推动官方承认在其控制下的10个城镇和6个副城镇是未来的塔昂州的一部分。然而，政治分析人士吴丹梭认为，不太可能达成协议。

“As far as I understand, the TNLA wants these areas officially recognized as Ta’ang State. The military, on the other hand, is only willing to consider granting them self-governing status under the 2008 Constitution, limited to two districts. The rest would need to be decided through Parliament. These demands are incompatible, so I don’t see the talks succeeding,” he told SHAN.

“据我所知，TNLA希望这些地区被正式承认为塔昂州。另一方面，军方只愿意考虑根据2008年宪法给予他们自治地位，仅限于两个区。其余的需要通过议会来决定。这些要求是不相容的，所以我认为谈判不会成功。”（本站编辑注：德昂主张的权利需要议会决定，但是停火不需要议会决定，先停火再慢慢决定德昂主张的权利不可以吗？）

China has urged the Myanmar military to halt airstrikes, but recent attacks suggest that their influence may be limited. On February 15, the military bombed four TNLA-controlled villages in Naung Cho Township, destroying a school and adding to the growing sense of fear among civilians.

中国敦促缅甸军方停止空袭，但最近的袭击表明，中国的影响力可能有限。2月15日，军方轰炸了南乡乡tnla控制的四个村庄，摧毁了一所学校，加剧了平民日益增长的恐惧感。

“Even while the discussions are ongoing, airstrikes continue. If negotiations fail, things will only get worse. Just hearing the sound of airstrikes makes me afraid,” said a woman from Kutkai.

“尽管谈判正在进行，空袭仍在继续。如果谈判失败，事情只会变得更糟。一听到空袭的声音就让我害怕，”来自库特凯的一名妇女说。

On February 10, an airstrike in TNLA-controlled Mogok killed five civilians and injured 19 others, underscoring the human cost of the conflict.

2月10日，在tnla控制的Mogok发生的空袭造成5名平民死亡，19人受伤，突显了这场冲突造成的人员伤亡。

The TNLA currently controls Nam Kham, Kutkai, Namtu, Mong Ngo, Mong Lon, Nam San, Man Tong, Kyauk Mae, Naung Cho, Moe Meik, Mogok, and Hsipaw Township. Residents in these areas live under the looming threat of further airstrikes, with little hope for immediate relief.

TNLA目前控制着南康、库特凯、南图、bb100 Ngo、孟Lon、南山、万塘、皎美、糯赵、莫美、Mogok和西坡乡。这些地区的居民生活在进一步空袭迫在眉睫的威胁之下，立即得到救援的希望渺茫。

While negotiations offer a glimmer of hope, the ongoing attacks suggest that peace remains fragile. With both sides holding firm on their demands, the future of the region hangs in uncertainty. For many residents, the fear of the next strike has become an unavoidable part of daily life.

虽然谈判带来了一线希望，但持续不断的袭击表明和平仍然脆弱。由于双方都坚持自己的要求，该地区的未来充满了不确定性。对许多居民来说，对下一次空袭的恐惧已经成为日常生活中不可避免的一部分。

作者：掸邦先驱新闻社           来源：掸邦先驱新闻社