CHINA’S ENFORCER AND REFEREE ROLE: Kokang withdrawal from Lashio confirmed

中国队的主裁判角色：果敢从腊戍退赛得到确认（机译）

作者：Sai Wansai        来源：掸邦先驱新闻社

Chinese New Year celebration in Lashio.

腊戍的春节庆祝活动。

The rumors have been around for a few weeks ever since the meeting between the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) and junta or State Administration Council (SAC) took place in mid-January in Kunming, brokered by Beijing.

自1月中旬在北京的斡旋下，缅甸民族民主联盟军（MNDAA）与缅甸军政府或国家行政委员会（SAC）在昆明举行会议以来，这些谣言已经流传了几周。

On January 28, a Chinese official gave a speech during the opening occasion of Chinese New Year to welcome the year of snake, outlining that the MNDAA will withdraw from Lashio phase-by-phase, which should be completed before the end of June. He further sweetened the situation that MNDAA will be allowed to keep the other territories captured during the Operation 1027, except Lashio, the junta’s North Eastern Command. However, this still needs to be confirmed, as in principle the SAC isn’t entitled or allowed to alter political map, give away territories without the Parliamentary lawmakers approval or consent, according to military-drafted constitution of 2008.

1月28日，一名中国官员在农历新年迎接蛇年的开幕式上发表讲话，概述了MNDAA将分阶段从腊戍撤军，应该在6月底之前完成。他进一步表示，除了军政府的东北司令部腊戍之外，MNDAA将被允许保留在1027行动中占领的其他领土。然而，这仍然需要确认，因为根据2008年军方起草的宪法，原则上SAC无权也不允许在没有议会议员批准或同意的情况下改变政治版图，割让领土。

“It will be withdrawn in stages, in batches, with the last batch to be withdrawn before the end of June,” a Yunnan-based researcher who studies China-Myanmar relations and requested anonymity for security reasons, according to Myanmar Now latest report.

“它将分阶段、分批撤回，最后一批将在6月底前撤回，”一位研究中缅关系的云南研究员，根据缅甸现在的最新报道，出于安全原因要求匿名。

A Chinese government representative visited a Chinese New Year celebration in Lashio yesterday and explained to locals in Chinese the conditions under which the Kokang forces must withdraw from Lashio. The statement included the following: According to the peace agreement, the Kokang forces must withdraw from Lashio this year; there will be no military recruitment in Lashio until June 2025; Lashio residents who have been away can return home; and there will be no more fighting in Lashio. A clip of the speech went viral on social media yesterday, and a Lashio city rehabilitation official told Myanmar Now that the person who made the statement was a Chinese government representative. “They said they were ordered to withdraw. I won’t go into details,” he said.

一名中国政府代表昨天参观了腊戍的农历新年庆祝活动，并用中文向当地人解释果敢军队必须从腊戍撤军的条件。声明内容如下：根据和平协定，果敢部队必须在今年撤出腊戍；2025年6月以前，腊戍不征兵；外出的腊戍居民可以回家；腊戍也不会再有战争了。昨天，这段讲话的片段在社交媒体上疯传，腊戍市的一名康复官员告诉《今日缅甸》，发表这段讲话的人是中国政府代表。“他们说他们被命令撤退。我不会透露细节，”他说。

Ethnic nationalities attended Chinese New Year in Lashio.

腊戍各民族欢度春节。

Reportedly, MNDAA has already told its allies about the agreement reached with the junta, but only hasn’t made it publicly known. Even now it hasn’t uttered anything official from its side on the Lashio withdrawal issue.

据报道，MNDAA已经告知其盟友与军政府达成的协议，但尚未公开。即使到现在，它也没有就腊戍撤军问题发表任何官方言论。

On January 16, MNDAA and SAC finally signed a ceasefire agreement after the meetings between the two parties in December 2024.

1月16日，MNDAA和SAC在双方于2024年12月举行会谈后，最终签署了停火协议。

Reportedly, Chinese authorities have detained the Kokang ethnic leader, Peng Deren who traveled to China in October last year to meet with a Chinese government special envoy. Peng Deren, who is about 59 years old, is the son of MNDAA founder Peng Jaisheng, and China did not allow him to attend the ceasefire talks between the Kokang and the military council in Yunnan province in January.

据报道，中国当局拘留了果敢族领导人彭德仁。去年10月，彭德仁曾前往中国会见中国政府特使。彭德仁今年59岁左右，是民盟创始人彭在生的儿子。今年1月，中国不允许他参加果敢和缅甸军事委员会在云南举行的停火谈判。

Various sources from the National Unity Government’s Ministry of Defense, sources close to the ethnic resistance leaders, and sources who study China-Myanmar affairs in Yunnan province, including Kokang sources, confirmed to Myanmar Now of the said agreement. However, it is unclear whether the Kokang will actually implement the agreements.

来自民族团结政府国防部、接近少数民族抵抗运动领导人的消息人士，以及在云南省研究中缅事务的消息人士（包括果敢消息人士）向《缅甸今日》证实了上述协议。然而，果敢是否会真正执行这些协议还不清楚。

Analysis 分析

Given such political and military aspects of development the key elements of ceasefire may be summed up as: Withdrawal from Lashio; Pressure from China; Focus on Peace and Development; Unity Among Ethnic Groups; and Chinese Interest.

鉴于事态发展的这些政治和军事方面，停火的关键因素可概括为：撤出腊戍；来自中国的压力；聚焦和平与发展；民族团结；和中国利益。

The Lashio withdrawal seems a necessity for the SAC, China and also MNDAA because it is not only North Eastern Command of the military junta and without which government-to-government relationship to undertake cross-border trade won’t be possible. Naturally, MNDAA will also be given a cut, although not like the extend of its previous demand about a year back, where it asked for 75% tax collected at the border-trade gates.

从腊戍撤军似乎对国民军、中国和孟民军都是必要的，因为它不仅是军政府的东北司令部，没有它，政府间的跨境贸易关系就不可能实现。自然，MNDAA也会得到削减，尽管不像一年前要求的那样扩大，当时它要求在边境贸易门口征收75%的税。

The pressure from China is, no doubt, the real engine that pushed MNDAA to comply with the Chinese demands, such as considerable pressure on the MNDAA to comply with terms favorable to the junta, including threats against MNDAA leadership and restrictions on supplies crossing into their controlled territories.

毫无疑问，来自中国的压力是推动MNDAA服从中国要求的真正动力，例如对MNDAA施加了相当大的压力，要求其遵守有利于军政府的条款，包括威胁MNDAA领导层和限制物资进入他们控制的领土。

MNDAA leader Peng Deren in recent statements, emphasized a commitment to peace and economic development rather than military confrontation. This shift indicates a strategic pivot towards governance and stability within their controlled areas while maintaining autonomy.

MNDAA领导人彭德仁在最近的声明中强调，致力于和平与经济发展，而不是军事对抗。这一转变表明，在保持自治的同时，他们在战略上转向控制区域内的治理和稳定。

MNDAA also expressed intentions to strengthen ties with other ethnic armed organizations and unity within Myanmar, indicating a potential shift towards collaborative governance rather than isolationist strategies. Although how it is going to carry it out by yielding to China’s demand and stop fighting the junta because the majority of the ethnic resistance organizations (EROs) are for uprooting the SAC and exclusion of it altogether from Myanmar political arena.

民革协还表示打算加强与缅甸其他民族武装组织的联系和团结，表明可能转向合作治理，而不是孤立主义战略。尽管它将如何通过屈服于中国的要求并停止与军政府作战来实现它，因为大多数民族抵抗组织（EROs）都是为了将SAC连根拔起并将其完全排除在缅甸的政治舞台之外。

MNDAA officers. MNDAA军官。

And finally, there is the Chinese interest, or rather national interest, with China’s broader geopolitical interests in maintaining stability along its border with Myanmar and ensuring that its investments are protected from conflict-related disruptions. This has all along been China’s ultimate goal and the implementation of Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC) that covers the whole Myanmar cannot be compromised, as it has to be the whole entity, preferably with the SAC involved as a stakeholder.

最后，还有中国的利益，或者更确切地说，是中国的国家利益，中国更广泛的地缘政治利益是维护中缅边境地区的稳定，并确保其投资不受冲突相关干扰。这一直是中国的最终目标，“一带一路”倡议和覆盖整个缅甸的中缅经济走廊的实施不能妥协，因为它必须是整个实体，最好是SAC作为利益相关者参与。

Moreover, some implications of ceasefire may be listed as: Stability in Northern Shan State; Impact on Other Armed Groups; Future Negotiations; and International Relations.

此外，停火的一些影响可以列举如下：掸邦北部的稳定；对其他武装团体的影响；未来的谈判;以及国际关系。

If adhered to the stability ceasefire could lead to greater stability in northern Shan State, allowing for economic development initiatives that benefit both local populations and Chinese investments.

如果遵守稳定停火协议，掸邦北部可能会更加稳定，从而实现有利于当地居民和中国投资的经济发展倡议。

If this happens, The dynamics created by this ceasefire may influence other ethnic armed groups in Myanmar, potentially leading them to reassess their strategies concerning negotiations with both the junta and external powers like China.

如果发生这种情况，停火所产生的动态可能会影响缅甸的其他民族武装团体，可能会导致他们重新评估与军政府和中国等外部力量谈判的策略。

However, whether this temporary ceasefire will resolve the underlying tensions between ethnic groups and the central government may depend on future negotiations crucial to achieve lasting peace.

然而，这次临时停火是否会解决少数民族和中央政府之间潜在的紧张关系，可能取决于未来的谈判，这对实现持久和平至关重要。

Concerning international relations, the involvement of China, which actually is the sole mediator-enforcer and referee at the same time, highlights its growing influence in regional politics and its role as conflict transformer involving ethnic armed groups within Myanmar.

在国际关系方面，中国实际上是唯一的调解人，同时也是唯一的执行者和裁判，这突显了中国在地区政治中日益增长的影响力，以及它在缅甸境内少数民族武装团体冲突中的转变作用。

Last but not least, if this ceasefire represents a significant step towards reducing hostilities between the MNDAA and SAC will become contagious and stop the civil war eventually in the long run, is anybody’s guess, given the polarized political stance of the ethnic-democratic alliance forces fighting the junta and the junta’s belief that it can still turn the tide to its favor, with the help of Chinese backing.

最后但并非最不重要的一点是，考虑到与军政府作战的民族民主联盟力量的政治立场两极分化，以及军政府相信在中国支持的帮助下，它仍然可以扭转局势，任何人都在猜测，如果这次停火代表着减少MNDAA和SAC之间敌对行动的重要一步，它将具有传染性，并最终在长期内停止内战。

作者：Sai Wansai          来源：掸邦先驱新闻社