China’s Current Stance On Myanmar

中国对缅甸问题的当前立场（机译）

作者：Hurn Kayang         来源：掸邦先驱新闻社

Chinese top leaders had a closed-door meeting last month to discuss matters concerning Myanmar. China has become more concerned about the management capabilities of the military-led State Administration Council (SAC). According to the sources, the Chinese leader accepted that this was the first occasion in which they had seen the military’s weakness. The military lacks the ability to safeguard their economic interests and is ineffective in facilitating relations between the two nations.

中国最高领导人上个月举行了一次闭门会议，讨论缅甸问题。中国越来越关注军方领导的国家行政委员会（SAC）的管理能力。据消息人士称，中国领导人承认，这是他们第一次看到军队的弱点。军方缺乏维护经济利益的能力，在促进两国关系方面也无能为力。

Although the SAC governs important towns like Naypyidaw, Yangon, and Mandalay, resistance armed groups dominate the majority of the nation and can safeguard Chinese corporate interests. Nevertheless, Chinese delegates continue not to cooperate with the People’s Defense Forces (PDFs), seeing these organizations as supported by Western governments.

尽管国委会管理着内比都、仰光和曼德勒等重要城镇，但抵抗武装组织控制着缅甸的大部分地区，可以保护中国企业的利益。然而，中国代表继续不与人民国防军（pdf）合作，认为这些组织得到了西方政府的支持。

There is no confirmation from China about which side they are on. Nonetheless, they are playing their games.

中国没有证实他们是哪一方。尽管如此，他们还是在玩自己的游戏。

On January 16, 2025, China convened another talk between the SAC and the Kokang-Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) in Kunming due to the unsuccessful first meeting in December of the previous year.

继去年12月第一次会谈失败后，中国于2025年1月16日在昆明再次召集国民军与果敢-缅甸民族民主联盟军会谈。

Sources also stated that China would convene a meeting with the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) due to concerns over their business and a lack of confidence in the SAC’s leader Min Aung Hlaing’s ability to safeguard their interests.

消息人士还表示，中国将与达昂民族解放军（TNLA）召开会议，原因是担心他们的业务，以及对SAC领导人敏昂莱（Min Aung Hlaing）维护他们利益的能力缺乏信心。

According to an ISP-Myanmar report, out of 23 business projects, including oil and gas pipelines, roads, railways, and wind power, 13 are currently under the control of resistance groups, specifically the MNDAA, TNLA, and PDFs, while another 10 projects are controlled by the Arakan Army (AA). Currently, only three townships remain beyond the jurisdiction of the AA.

根据缅甸互联网服务公司的一份报告，在包括石油和天然气管道，公路，铁路和风力发电在内的23个商业项目中，有13个目前在抵抗组织的控制下，特别是MNDAA， TNLA和pdf，而另外10个项目由阿拉干军（AA）控制。目前，只有三个乡镇不在机管局的管辖范围之内。

The Kachin Independence Army (KIA) is also progressively extending its territorial control in Kachin State. Recently, it successfully captured significant townships such as Pangwa, Manze, and Zang Hawng.

克钦独立军也在逐步扩大其在克钦邦的领土控制。最近，它成功占领了Pangwa， Manze和Zang hang等重要城镇。

Despite the fact that the MNDAA and SAC met last week, nothing changed in the present scenario. There is no meaningful agreement between them. The MNDAA continues to refuse to leave the territories it recently gained from the military.

尽管MNDAA和SAC上周举行了会议，但目前的情况没有任何改变。他们之间没有达成有意义的协议。MNDAA继续拒绝离开它最近从军方手中获得的领土。

In this regard, several Chinese academics advised that the Chinese government work with the resistance organizations. But which organizations might China collaborate with? The answer is the organizations that were able to acquire and govern the regions where Chinese firms operate.

对此，一些中国学者建议中国政府与抵抗组织合作。但中国可能与哪些组织合作？答案是那些有能力收购并管理中国企业所在地区的组织。

Thus, it is important to remember that in politics, there are no permanent friends and foes. For instance, the United States of America had designated the Syrian group Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) as a terrorist organization and issued a $10 million bounty arrest warrant for its leader, Ahmed Al-Sharaa. Nevertheless, the United States revoked the $10 million bounty in December of last year after Sharaa ousted Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, asserting that the HTS group did not pose a threat to the United States and its allies.

因此，重要的是要记住，在政治中，没有永远的朋友和敌人。例如，美国将叙利亚的沙姆解放组织（HTS）指定为恐怖组织，并对其领导人艾哈迈德·沙拉（Ahmed Al-Sharaa）发出了1000万美元的通缉令。然而，去年12月，在伊斯兰国推翻叙利亚总统巴沙尔·阿萨德（Bashar al-Assad）后，美国撤销了1000万美元的赏金，声称该组织对美国及其盟友没有构成威胁。

This should serve as a warning for the resistance groups as well; while China currently seems to support them, if the SAC can strike back and regain control of the country. China would then align itself with the SAC. So, the resistance forces must seize such opportunity given to them; otherwise, they will be left with nothing.

这对抵抗组织也是一个警告；虽然中国目前似乎支持他们，但如果国资委能够反击并重新控制国家的话。届时，中国将与SAC结盟。因此，抵抗力量必须抓住给予他们的机会；否则，他们将一无所有。

作者：Hurn Kayang         来源：掸邦先驱新闻社