Junta/MNDAA Peace Talks Doomed to Fail

军政府/MNDAA和谈注定失败（机译）

作者：掸邦先驱新闻社        来源：掸邦先驱新闻社

MNDAA leaders. Photo: The Kokang.

MNDAA领导人。图片：果敢。

Peace talks between the Myanmar junta and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) held in Kunming, China, on 15 December 2024, ended in failure with no agreement reached.

2024年12月15日，缅甸军政府与缅甸民族民主联盟军在中国昆明举行的和谈以失败告终，未能达成任何协议。

At the Chinese mediated talks the junta demanded that the MNDAA withdraw its troops from Lashio Town in northern Shan State, which is under MNDAA control. It also demanded that the MNDAA release all prisoners of war, including captured junta commanders, and that it reopens the border crossings to China in the towns of Lashio, Kunlong, and Chinshwehaw.

在中国斡旋的会谈中，缅甸军政府要求民族解放运动从掸邦北部的腊戍镇撤军，该地区由民族解放运动控制。它还要求缅甸民族解放运动释放所有战俘，包括被俘的军政府指挥官，并重新开放腊戍、昆隆和钦秀霍镇通往中国的过境点。

The MNDAA rejected the junta’s demands to withdraw from Lashio Town and demanded that it instead makes Lashio Township an autonomous area under MNDAA control and designates it as Special Region 1.

民族解放运动拒绝了军政府从腊戍镇撤出的要求，要求军政府将腊戍镇作为民族解放运动控制下的自治区，并将其指定为第1特区。

According to political analyst U Than Soe Naing, a China-Myanmar expert and former member of the Communist Party of Burma, any further talks between the MNDAA and the junta are very unlikely to succeed as both sides’ demands are unacceptable to the other side.

据政治分析人士、中缅问题专家、前缅甸共产党成员丹梭奈说，同盟军和军政府之间的任何进一步谈判都不太可能成功，因为双方的要求都是对方无法接受的。

He said to SHAN: “The MNDAA has invested a great deal of sweat and blood to take control of Lashio Town. The junta’s demands for its withdrawal is very childish and, put simply, it won’t work. A meaningful compromise needs to be proposed. What I see now is the junta claiming to pursue peace talks and resolve disputes through political means, but in reality, it is solely focused on reclaiming the territories it has lost. With this approach, these negotiations are destined to fail. That’s my opinion.”

他对SHAN说：“MNDAA已经投入了大量的汗水和鲜血来控制腊戍镇。军政府要求军队撤军是非常幼稚的，简单地说，这是行不通的。需要提出一个有意义的妥协方案。我现在看到的是军政府声称寻求和平谈判，通过政治手段解决争端，但实际上，它只是专注于收回它失去的领土。以这种方式，这些谈判注定要失败。这是我的看法。”

According to reports, China is also privately putting pressure on the MNDAA to withdraw from Lashio Town.

据报道，中国也在私下向民防军施压，要求其撤出腊戍镇。

He also pointed out that whenever talks collapse, the junta often resorts to airstrikes and other acts of aggression and that China has consistently sided with the junta and never condemned such retaliatory actions. He believes that such behaviour by both the junta and the Chinese has also played a role in the failure of the talks.

他还指出，每当谈判破裂时，军政府往往采取空袭等侵略行为，中国始终站在军政府一边，从不谴责这种报复行为。他认为，缅甸军政府和中国的这种行为也在谈判失败中发挥了作用。

After the failure of the 15 December peace talks the junta launched airstrikes against the MNDAA controlled town of Theinni (Hsenwi) in northern Shan State, on 1 January 2025.

在12月15日的和平谈判失败后，军政府于2025年1月1日对掸邦北部由民族解放运动联盟控制的泰尼镇（赫森维）发动空袭。

A Lashio Town resident said that the junta’s practice of launching airstrikes whenever talks fail has left Lashio Town residents living in constant fear and anxiety.

腊戍镇的一名居民说，军政府每次谈判失败就发动空袭的做法，让腊戍镇的居民一直生活在恐惧和焦虑之中。

She said: “The aircraft that bombed Theinni on New Year’s Day flew low over Lashio Town on its way back at around 11:00 pm, possibly close to midnight. The residents couldn’t sleep because they were scared after having heard the sound of loud jet engines close by. The constant worrying about when aircraft would arrive to bomb us was overwhelming, and everyone was terrified.”

她说：“在新年那天轰炸泰尼尼的飞机在晚上11点左右低空飞过腊戍镇，可能接近午夜。居民们无法入睡，因为他们听到附近巨大的喷气发动机声后感到害怕。一直担心飞机什么时候会来轰炸我们，这让人不知所措，每个人都很害怕。”

The junta and the MNDAA are scheduled to hold another round of talks in January 2025.

军政府和民族解放运动计划在2025年1月举行另一轮会谈。

作者：掸邦先驱新闻社        来源：掸邦先驱新闻社