INTER-ETHNIC CONFLICT IN SHAN STATE: A bigger hurdle for the realization of federal democratic union

掸邦的民族冲突：实现联邦民主联盟的更大障碍(机译）

作者：Sai Wansai         来源：掸邦先驱新闻社

Map of the Federated Shan States (1922 1947).

掸邦联邦地图（1922 - 1947）。

While many are fixed on the uprooting of military dictatorship system and establishment of the federal democratic union, not many are keen to delve on the issues in a pragmatic, realpolitik and critical sense on how they are being interpreted and implemented on the ground.

虽然许多人着眼于铲除军事独裁制度和建立联邦民主联盟，但很少有人热衷于以务实的、现实政治的和批判性的方式深入研究这些问题，了解这些问题在实地如何被解释和实施。

Although there is no argument that the military dictatorship system can’t be accepted in any future building of a genuine federal democratic union, not many pondered on how to go about the resolving of inter-ethnic conflict in a civilized, democratic manner, so that living together under the notion of “unity in diversity ” will be practically implementable in a federal democratic union we all envisage.

虽然没有人认为军事独裁制度在未来建立一个真正的联邦民主联盟中是不可接受的，但很少有人思考如何以文明民主的方式解决民族间的冲突，从而在“多元一体”的概念下共同生活在我们所设想的联邦民主联盟中。

The concern of this piece is only to highlight the need of correct thinking in resolving glitches or removing the hurdles that might be hindering our way to reach the goal of federal democratic union. As such, uprooting the military issue won’t be discussed at length, but taken as a necessary basic fact to realize the aspirations of a democratic, pluralistic multi-ethnic state.

这篇文章的关注点只是强调在解决小故障或消除可能阻碍我们实现联邦民主联盟目标的障碍时需要正确的思维。因此，根除军事问题不会被详细讨论，而是被视为实现民主、多元、多民族国家愿望的必要基本事实。

When thinking about ethnic harmony and ethnic conflict, including inter-ethnic conflict and minority protection issues, Shan State offers the best experience in which we all can look at as exclusive unfolding examples, although other states like Kachin, Arakan and Chin also have their fair share of problems on a lesser scale.

在考虑民族和谐与民族冲突，包括民族间冲突和少数民族保护问题时，掸邦提供了最好的经验，我们都可以把它作为独特的展开例子，尽管克钦、若开和钦等其他邦也有规模较小的问题。

Ethnic Armed Groups. Photo: The Asia Foundation.

少数民族武装团体。图片来源：亚洲基金会

A mosaic of ethnic demographic pattern

民族人口结构的马赛克

To start with the people of Shan State may be divided into ten primary ethnic groups namely the Shan (Tai), Pa-O, Intha, Lahu, Lisu, Taungyo, Danu, Palaung, Ahka, and Kachin (Jingpo).

首先，掸邦的人民可以分为十个主要民族，即掸族（泰族）、巴鄂族、印他族、拉祜族、傈僳族、东教族、达努族、帕朗族、阿卡族和克钦族（景颇族）。

The Shan people who are mostly Buddhists inhabited the valleys and tableland and are mainly engaged in agriculture.

掸族主要是佛教徒，居住在山谷和高原，主要从事农业。

The hills are inhabited by various peoples notably the Wa in the north and along the Chinese border.

这些山上居住着各种民族，特别是北部和中国边境的佤族。

The Palaung people are numerous in the Northern Shan State, in the townships of Namkham, Muse, Namhpaka, Kutkai, and Lashio along the China-Myanmar border, and in the middle of Shan State, in the townships of Namhsan, Kyaukme, and Hsipaw. Some of the Palaung people can also be found in Kalaw Township in the Southern Shan State.

在掸邦北部，在中缅边境的Namkham， Muse, Namhpaka， Kutkai和Lashio镇，以及掸邦中部的Namhsan， Kyaukme和Hsipaw镇，Palaung人数量众多。在掸邦南部的Kalaw镇也可以找到一些帕朗人。

Very often than not the ethnic groups in Shan State mingled with one another and it is in no way a neatly divided pattern, but mostly overlapping kind of settlement patterns.

掸邦的少数民族经常混杂在一起，这绝不是一种整齐划分的模式，而是一种重叠的定居模式。

In general, it is fair to say that Shan State diverse ethnic groups have lived together quite peacefully during the pre-colonial, colonial and post-colonial eras, until after a few years of independence from the British in 1948.

总的来说，可以公平地说，掸邦各民族在前殖民、殖民和后殖民时期一直相当和平地生活在一起，直到1948年脱离英国独立几年后。

南掸军rcss ssa soldiers

 EAOs in Shan State 掸邦的eao

While there are some ten ethnic groups within Shan State only a handful of ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) are active and try to assert their influence in Shan State politics through armed resistance.

虽然掸邦境内有大约十个民族，但只有少数民族武装组织活跃，并试图通过武装抵抗在掸邦政治中施加影响。

They are United Wa State Army (UWSA), Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), Kachin Independence Army (KIA) in northern Shan State and Pa-O National Liberation Organization (PNLO), Pa-O National Organization (PNO), and lately, the Danu People Liberation Army (DPLA), including the UWSA in southern Shan State.

它们是佤邦联合军（UWSA）、塔昂民族解放军（TNLA）、缅甸民族民主联盟军（MNDAA）、掸邦北部的克钦独立军（KIA）和帕奥民族解放组织（PNLO）、帕奥民族组织（PNO），以及最近的达努人民解放军（DPLA），包括掸邦南部的佤联军。

The two Shan armies of which the Shan State Progress Army (SSPP) is active in the north and the Restoration Council of Shan State (RCSS) in the south of Shan State often overlapped their deployment and clashes time and again between themselves, although both are not engaged in fighting with the military junta, to the dissatisfaction of the Shan people and the whole countrywide population in general. But they don’t seem to bother much with the public opinion.

掸邦进步军（SSPP）活跃在北部，掸邦恢复委员会（RCSS）活跃在掸邦南部，这两支掸邦军队经常重叠部署，彼此之间经常发生冲突，尽管这两支军队都没有与军政府作战，这引起了掸邦人民和全国人民的不满。但他们似乎不太在意公众舆论。

The EAOs that have state-level administration ambition, just like the now existing 7 ethnic states, are the Wa, Palaung or Ta’ang, and Pa-O. The MNDAA or Kokang just wanted more territories in its self-administered zone and recognition of the MNDAA as it’s local government.

具有国家级管理野心的eao，就像现在存在的7个少数民族邦一样，是Wa， Palaung或Ta 'ang和Pa-O。果敢民盟只是想在其自治区域内获得更多领土，并承认果敢民盟是地方政府。

北掸军sspp ssa soldiers

EAOs’ rivalry in Shan State

掸邦eao的竞争

From the outset, Operation 1027 led by the Three Brotherhood Alliance (3BHA) battle cry has been the uprooting of military dictatorship system and establishment of the genuine federal democratic union to fulfill the aspirations of the people countrywide, at the end of 2023.

从一开始，由三兄弟联盟（3BHA）领导的1027行动的战斗口号就是在2023年底铲除军事独裁制度，建立真正的联邦民主联盟，以实现全国人民的愿望。

The 3BHA is made up of Arakan Army (AA), TNLA and MNDAA. Of the three only AA isn’t an ethnic group from Shan State, but fought as allies with a few hundred troops in Shan State during the first phase of Operation 1027, although not in the second phase, as it is busy trying to evict the junta’s troops from Rakhein State quite successfully, from its original stomping ground and homeland.

3BHA由若开军（AA）、TNLA和MNDAA组成。在这三个民族中，只有AA不是掸邦的少数民族，但在1027行动的第一阶段，它与数百名士兵在掸邦作为盟友作战，尽管不是在第二阶段，因为它正忙着把军政府的军队从若开邦驱逐出去，相当成功地离开了它原来的地盘和家园。

Shortly after MNDAA and TNLA captured almost all the military camps, in mid-2024, including Lashio the junta’s North Eastern Command, numerous frictions and at time armed clashes occurred between the EAOs operating in the northern Shan State because of territorial control disputes. And this is an ongoing, unresolved problem that won’t go away easily.

2024年中期，在民族解放运动和民族解放军占领了几乎所有的军营，包括军政府的东北司令部腊戍之后不久，由于领土控制争端，在掸邦北部活动的民族解放运动组织之间发生了许多摩擦，有时还发生了武装冲突。这是一个持续的、未解决的问题，不会轻易消失。

The recent planned negotiation between the junta and MNDAA and TNLA mediated by China may also centered on territorial ownership bargaining,where the two EAOs would ask for more but the junta may not entertain such demand. And China will be powerless at such upcoming scenario of bargaining.

最近由中国斡旋的军政府与MNDAA和TNLA之间的谈判计划也可能集中在领土所有权谈判上，两个eao将要求更多，但军政府可能不会接受这样的要求。在即将到来的讨价还价中，中国将无能为力。

Quite recently, the news of Royal Thai Third Army demanded that the UWSA to withdrew from all its military garrisons along with Thai border across Maehongson Province hit the headlines, which the UWSA said that it won’t comply to. This is also a clear example of the UWSA territorial expansionism coming down from the Chinese border in the north to southern Shan State against the will of original residents of the areas, which were pushed out.

最近，泰国皇家第三军要求佤联军从泰国边境梅洪森省的所有军事驻地撤出的消息登上了头条，佤联军表示不会遵守这一要求。这也是佤联军领土扩张的一个明显例子，从北部的中国边境向下延伸到掸邦南部，违背了该地区原始居民的意愿，这些居民被赶了出去。

The TNLA, MNDAA, UWSA and PNLO all want a neatly demarcated broader ethnic states, at the expense of the original residents and Shan majority.

TNLA， MNDAA， UWSA和PNLO都希望以牺牲原始居民和占多数的掸族为代价，建立一个划分整齐的更广泛的民族国家。

TNLA troops. Photo: TNLA News and Information Department.

TNLA部队。图片来源：TNLA新闻信息部。

Redrawing of political map

重新绘制政治版图

There is no denying that the future federal democratic union will need adjustment and redrawing of political map, including creation of new constituent units and even more decentralization if needed.

不可否认，未来的联邦民主联盟需要调整和重新绘制政治版图，包括建立新的组成单位，必要时甚至需要更多的权力下放。

But trying to define political map or redrawing by employing might is right may not be an appropriate approach and even run contrary to the common goal of establishing federal democratic union aspirations for all ethnic groups.

但是，试图通过“强权即公理”来定义政治版图或重新绘制版图，可能不是一种合适的方法，甚至与为所有民族建立联邦民主联盟的共同目标背道而驰。

Because it promotes narrow ethnonationalism embedded in territorial expansionism and fuel animosity among different ethnic groups, rather than harmony and living together under the motto of “unity in diversity “.

因为它助长了植根于领土扩张主义的狭隘民族主义，助长了不同种族群体之间的仇恨，而不是在“多元统一”的口号下和谐共处。

In short, the problems of redrawing new political map will need an agreed criteria, procedure, and constitutional guidelines according to the consent of the people, as the country’s sovereignty belongs to the people.

总之，国家的主权属于国民，因此，重新绘制政治版图的问题需要根据国民的同意制定一致的标准、程序和宪法指导方针。

Recent development and future outlook

最近的发展和未来展望

According to recent development the two trends of fighting and negotiation seems to be running parallel in Shan State as a whole.

根据最近的事态发展，战斗和谈判这两种趋势似乎在整个掸邦同时发生。

To be exact, in northern Shan State the MNDAA and TNLA are on the course of negotiation with the junta either because of the Chinese pressure or out of necessity. But to date no public response has been heard from the junta’s side so far. Nevertheless, the junta is said to scale back its airstrikes and the two EAOs refraining from fighting the junta except for occasional clashes between the TNLA and junta in Nwanghkio area.

确切地说，在掸邦北部，由于中国的压力或出于必要，MNDAA和TNLA正在与军政府进行谈判。但到目前为止，还没有听到军政府方面的公开回应。尽管如此，据说军政府减少了空袭，除了TNLA和军政府在Nwanghkio地区偶尔发生冲突外，两个eao也没有与军政府作战。

The friction concerning territorial and demarcation disputes between the MNDAA, TNLA, UWSA and KIA, including the SSPP among the EAOs were reported very often in the past few months, following the defeat of the junta in northern Shan State, haven’t been reported for sometime now. This may be due to the Chinese sanctions or five-cuts policy against the northern EAOs, to pressure them to stop offensive against the junta and pushing them to agree to peace negotiation with the junta.

过去几个月，在掸邦北部军政府被击败后，民族解放运动联盟、民族解放军、佤联军和克钦独立军之间的领土和划界争端经常被报道，其中包括民族自治组织中的SSPP，但现在有一段时间没有报道了。这可能是由于中国对北方民族自治组织的制裁或五分削减政策，迫使他们停止对军政府的进攻，并迫使他们同意与军政府进行和平谈判。

MNDAA troops. Photo: The Kokang

MNDAA部队。图片：果敢

Meanwhile, the KIA was invited by Beijing authorities on December 8, after the former took over of Kachin Special Region 1 from the junta’s Kachin militias, followed by the both border gates closures of KIA and China.

与此同时，克钦独立军于12月8日受到北京当局的邀请，此前克钦独立军从军政府的克钦民兵手中接管了克钦1特区，随后克钦独立军和中国的边境大门都关闭了。

However, no news or agreement on the meeting has been made public, except for that some border gates will be open soon in Kachin State.

然而，除了克钦邦的一些边境大门将很快开放之外，没有公布有关这次会议的消息或协议。

Reportedly, China have met with the UWSA, KIA, AA and TNLA separately in Yunan but nothing was made public about the meeting. In addition the Chinese brokered peace negotiation between the junta and the MNDAA in Kunming. China on December 15, which may well centered on the issue of withdrawal from North Eastern Military Command of Lashio that MNDAA has captured a few months ago.

据报道，中国在云南分别会见了UWSA、KIA、AA和TNLA，但没有公开会议。此外，在中国的斡旋下，缅甸军政府和果敢同盟军在昆明进行了和平谈判。12月15日，这很可能集中在从几个月前占领的拉戍东北军区撤军的问题上。

AA reportedly met Chinese authorities on December 1, in Tengchong, Yunan province. The discussion details were not made public but speculations are that it will involve projects in Kyaukphyu and employing Chinese security personnel to guard them. Moreover, AA and TNLA may also meet the junta soon according to the recent RFA report .

据报道，AA于12月1日在云南省腾冲会见了中国当局。讨论的细节没有公开，但猜测将涉及皎漂的项目，并雇用中国保安人员保护这些项目。此外，根据RFA最近的报道，AA和TNLA也可能很快会见军政府。

A source close to the military council, who spoke on condition of anonymity for security reasons, told RFA that the talks with MNDAA included Lt. Gen. Ko Ko U and a brigadier general. “Today, talks with the Kokang Army (MNDAA) began. The military council has Lt. Gen. Ko Ko U and a brigadier general. We understand that talks with the TNLA and AA may continue in the coming days.”

一位接近军事委员会的消息人士告诉RFA，与MNDAA的会谈包括Ko Ko U中将和一名准将。出于安全原因，该消息人士不愿透露姓名。“今天，与果敢军（MNDAA）的谈判开始了。军事委员会的成员包括中将高武（Ko Ko U）和一名准将。我们理解，与TNLA和AA的谈判可能会在未来几天继续进行。”

中国的动机是恢复和平，恢复跨境贸易，包括实施“一带一路”倡议和中缅经济走廊。但是对于像TNLA和MNDAA这样的北方民族自治组织来说，通过合并最近征服的领土，实现国家级的管理和自治区将是交易，而内比都可能恰恰相反，他们从所有被占领的领土撤出。

面对如此互不相容的目标，即使有中国的压力，也很难想象能达成协议。此外，作为一个非法政权和反对民选政府的政变制造者，军政府几乎没有合法性来决定重新绘制政治地图。

但这里的重点是提出狭隘和侵略性的民族主义问题，以及整个北方欧亚经济共同体的领土扩张冲动，这与建立真正的联邦民主联盟的精神背道而驰。因为他们相信，他们通过军事力量推翻军政府所取得的成就现在正确地属于他们，而事实上，他们必须在他们声称属于他们的领土内居住的人民的同意下民主地决定。

因此，最重要的是，想要建立一个真正的联邦民主联盟的愿望可能必须重新定义。换句话说，未经人民的强力同意，在国内重新绘制政治地图或建立新的政治组成单位和行政实体的权力是正确的格言，必须根据商定的标准和宪法规范和民主原则，由人民的同意来取代。当然，在未来的联邦民主联盟下，民有、民治、民享的政府。否则，想要建立一个真正的联邦民主联盟可能只是一个幻想和不切实际的梦想，因为它违背了所有民主规范，最重要的是，违背了“多元统一”的理念。

作者：Sai Wansai         来源：掸邦先驱新闻社