MNDAA, TNLA, SAC AND CHINESE MEDIATION: Another Chinese brokered Haigeng Ceasefire in the making?

MNDAA， TNLA， SAC和中国调停：另一个中国斡旋的海梗停火正在酝酿中？（机译）

作者：掸邦先驱新闻社        来源：掸邦先驱新闻社

MNDAA leaders. Photo: The Kokang.

MNDAA领导人。图片：果敢。

The Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) or Kokang has been telling both the military junta, military council or State Administration Council (SAC) and Beijing that it is ready to negotiate peace as proposed by China since September. Recently the same message has been reiterated again. The Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) also issued a similar statement on November 25 and so did the MNDAA again on December 3.

缅甸民族民主同盟军（MNDAA）或果敢一直告诉军政府、军事委员会或国家行政委员会（SAC）和北京，自9月以来，它准备按照中国的提议进行和平谈判。最近，同样的信息再次被重申。11月25日，达昂民族解放军（TNLA）也发表了类似声明，12月3日，MNDAA也发表了类似声明。

MNDAA under the pressure from China already issued a similar statement on September 4, vowing not to attack Mandalay city and the southern Shan State capital of Taunggyi and not to collaborate with the civilian National Unity Government (NUG) or any international organization opposed to China.

在中国的压力下，MNDAA已经在9月4日发表了类似的声明，发誓不会袭击曼德勒市和掸邦南部首府东夷，也不会与民间的民族团结政府（NUG）或任何反对中国的国际组织合作。

The Operation 1027 launched last year on October 27 by the Three Brotherhood Alliance (3BHA), the Arakan Army (AA), TNLA and MNDAA, in northern Shan State, which captured a number of junta’s military outposts came to a standstill due to China’s brokered ceasefire Haigeng Agreement, from mid-January to mid-June 2024. But by mid-May the talks collapsed and the fighting resumed on 13 June this year.

去年10月27日，三兄弟联盟（3BHA）、若开军（AA）、TNLA和MNDAA在掸邦北部发起了1027行动，占领了军政府的一些军事前哨。由于中国斡旋的停火协议，该行动从2024年1月中旬到6月中旬陷入停顿。但到5月中旬，谈判破裂，战斗于今年6月13日重新开始。

To the surprise of many and particularly China the 3BHA took over one military outpost after another until it overran the largest town, Lashio a sort of the northern Shan State capital and home to the junta’s Military Northeastern Command on August 3.

令许多人，特别是中国感到惊讶的是，3BHA占领了一个又一个的军事前哨，直到8月3日占领了最大的城镇腊戍，这是掸邦北部的首府，也是军政府东北军事司令部的所在地。

Here China made a political about turn from endorsing the 3BHA Operation 1027 in helping China curb the cyberscam operations in northern Shan State, as military junta was not cooperating due to its involvement in the illegal online undertakings, to intervening on behalf of the military regime from its rapid collapse.

在这里，中国在政治上发生了一个大转变，从支持3BHA 1027行动，帮助中国遏制掸邦北部的网络诈骗活动，因为军政府因参与非法网络活动而不合作，到代表军事政权进行干预，防止其迅速崩溃。

According to Jason Tower in his latest piece “Myanmar’s Resistance Manages to Defy Chinese Pressure — For Now”, published by United States Institute of Peace, on December 5, 2024, the reason seems to be because the MNDAA was thought to be cosying up to the NUG too much, which China could hardly swallow.

Jason Tower在美国和平研究所2024年12月5日发表的最新一篇文章《缅甸抵抗组织设法顶住中国的压力——目前》中指出，原因似乎是人们认为MNDAA过于讨好NUG，而中国很难接受。

“For the first two weeks of August, resistance forces continued to press onward, giving the impression that they would move into Mandalay. Rumors began to spread — even on Chinese-language social media outlets — that a deal had been cut between the MNDAA and the National Unity Government (NUG) to stand up an NUG office in Lashio and make MNDAA leader Peng Deren the new vice president once the military is defeated. While the MNDAA later dismissed these statements as disinformation, by then, China had already set an unprecedented response in motion,” according to Jason Tower.

“在8月的头两个星期，抵抗部队继续向前推进，给人的印象是他们将进入曼德勒。谣言开始传播——甚至在中文社交媒体上——民盟和民族团结政府（NUG）之间达成了一项协议，一旦军队被击败，民盟领导人彭德仁将在腊戍设立一个民族团结政府办公室，并担任新的副总统。尽管国防部后来将这些声明斥为虚假信息，但到那时，中国已经做出了前所未有的回应。”

Minister for Foreign Affairs of the National Unity Government of Myanmar

缅甸民族团结政府外交部长

From then on, China has come down hard on the MNDAA and TNLA by employing its five-cuts policy of imposing blockades on their regions, including cutting off electricity, water, the internet, and supplies such as fuel, medicine, and foodstuffs. The Chinese government has also restricted the movement of people in and out of the area and tightened controls at border crossings.

从那时起，中国对MNDAA和TNLA采取了严厉的政策，对他们的地区实施封锁，包括切断电力，水，互联网以及燃料，药品和食品等供应。中国政府还限制了人员进出该地区，并加强了边境口岸的控制。

Moreover, the United Wa State Army (UWSA) and National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA) or Mongla are also reprimanded to toe the Chinese line of sanctions against the two ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) or faced consequences.

此外，佤邦联合军（UWSA）和民族民主联盟军（NDAA）或勐拉也被谴责遵守中国对两个民族武装组织（eao）的制裁路线，否则将面临后果。

“China’s bottom line: This “5-cuts policy” should continue to be enforced on the TNLA and MNDAA until they end involvement in revolutionary activity and the latter hands Lashio back to the Myanmar army,” writes Jason Tower.

“中国的底线是：‘五减政策’应该继续对TNLA和MNDAA实施，直到他们停止参与革命活动，后者将腊戍归还给缅甸军队，”Jason Tower写道。

MNDAA Statement MNDAA声明

The MNDAA on December 3, 2024 announced its 5-point statement as below.

2024年12月3日，MNDAA宣布了以下五点声明。

In view of people’s welfare and serious war sufferings, to protect and uphold China-Myanmar’s tranquility and peace, to resolve civil war conflict through political means and to practically implement regional peace Myanmar National Truth and Justice Party (MNTJP)/MNDAA announced its position and opinion as the following:

鉴于人民福祉和严重的战争苦难，为维护和维护中缅的安宁与和平，通过政治手段解决内战冲突，切实落实地区和平，缅甸民族真理与正义党（MNTJP /MNDAA）宣布以下立场和意见：

It won’t secede from the country and establish a new country. It only is asking for genuine self-administered zone. It will steadfastly protect country’s stability, sovereignty and territories.

它不会脱离这个国家，建立一个新的国家。它只是在要求一个真正的自我管理区。我们将坚定不移地维护国家稳定、主权和领土。

Starting from today our forces will immediately stop fighting on the spot they arrived and won’t start to attack the military council troops. We hoped that under the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) mediation process we will be able to meet and discuss all issues, including Lashio. We will actively participate in the PRC’s mediation process.

从今天开始，我们的部队将立即在他们到达的地方停止战斗，不会开始攻击军事委员会的部队。我们希望，在中华人民共和国的调解进程下，我们将能够会面并讨论所有问题，包括腊戍。我们将积极参与中国的调解进程。

Military council must stop all its countrywide airstrikes and ground offensives.

军事委员会必须停止全国范围内的空袭和地面进攻。

In negotiation process MNTJP/MNDAA will send high-level representative delegation and hope to resolve conflict and differing views through political means.

在谈判过程中，MNTJP/MNDAA将派出高级别代表团，希望通过政治手段解决冲突和分歧。

Although MNDAA empower and approved political means (to resolve the conflict), it will withhold the rights of self-defense as before.

尽管MNDAA授权并批准了政治手段（解决冲突），但它将像以前一样保留自卫权。

(NOTE: Unofficial translation by this writer from Burmese language.)

（注：本文作者对缅甸语的非官方翻译）

TNLA Statement TNLA声明

The Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) issued a 5-point statement on November 25 that it is ready to negotiate and resolve military conflicts in recognition of the Chinese government’s efforts to stabilize the border and cease fire.

泰昂民族解放军（TNLA）于11月25日发表了五点声明，承认中国政府为稳定边境和停火所做的努力，并表示愿意谈判解决军事冲突。

In order to establish a stable political situation to end the ongoing military conflicts in the country, it will always cooperate with China’s mediation efforts and continue to cooperate (to achieve) good results.

为了建立稳定的政治局势，结束该国正在进行的军事冲突，它将始终配合中国的调解努力，并继续合作（取得）良好成果。

Most cities and innocent civilians that were captured during Operation 1027 led by the 3BHA are suffering from the consequences of the war due to the military council’s airstrikes.

在3BHA领导的“1027行动”中占领的大部分城市和无辜平民，由于军事委员会的空袭，正在遭受战争的后果。

Therefore, the TNLA is ready to negotiate and resolve military conflicts in support of the local people who are suffering from the war, but it will continue to uphold its right to self-defense.

因此，TNLA准备谈判和解决军事冲突，以支持遭受战争苦难的当地人民，但它将继续维护其自卫权。

In addition, the Ta’ang people will fight for the emergence of the Ta’ang State and will always strive to build a federal state that guarantees the right to self-determination of the ethnic people.

此外，德昂将为德昂邦的出现而斗争，并始终为建立一个保障民族自决权的联邦制国家而奋斗。

TNLA leaders. TNLA领导人。

Junta gearing to launch offensive against Lashio

军政府准备对腊戍发动进攻

Against this backdrop, all indications on the ground are pointing towards the junta gearing to launch offensive against Lashio to retake the Northeastern Military Command. On the other hand, the MNDAA is telling the Chinese that it is ready to talk with the junta under China’s peace mediation process, including the issue of Lashio.

在这种背景下，所有迹象都表明，缅甸军政府正准备对腊戍发动进攻，以夺回东北军区。另一方面，同盟军告诉中国，它准备在中国的和平调解进程下与军政府谈判，包括腊戍问题。

The SAC is reinforcing with thousands of troops in Mongyai and Tangyan and even training personnel to re-establish their administrative apparatus in Lashio, according to a local.

据一名当地人透露，国委正在勐崖和唐岩增援数千名士兵，甚至还在培训人员，以便在腊戍重建其行政机构。

After the capture of Lashio, also the Northeastern Military Command airstrikes, artillery fire, and mortar fire were repeatedly launched against Hoya by the junta, which has been controlled by the MNDAA, all the way stretching to Lashio.

在占领腊戍之后，由MNDAA控制的军政府也对霍亚进行了多次空袭、炮击和迫击炮射击，一直延伸到腊戍。

The local said that while drone reconnaissance is being conducted continuously, the MNDAA is also reinforcing Hoya, the main entrance to Lashio from Mongyai, according the recent report of The Irrawaddy.

据《伊洛瓦底江报》最近的报道，当地人称，在无人机不断进行侦察的同时，缅甸国防军也在加强从勐崖到腊戍的主要入口Hoya。

Analysis 分析

Looking at the northern Shan State war theater, the talks brokered by the Chinese may take place, sooner than later. But whether the ceasefire like Haigeng Agreement that lasted just a few months will come into being or not will depend upon the coercive-mediator-enforcer China.

看看掸邦北部的战区，由中国斡旋的谈判可能迟早会举行。但像《海梗协议》那样的停火协议能否实现，将取决于强制-调解-执行者中国。

Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi meets with Myanmar’s Commander in Chief Min Aung Hlaing. Photo: Xinhua.

国务委员兼外交部长王毅会见缅甸国防军总司令敏昂莱。照片:新华社。

Studying the wordings of TNLA statement, it almost sound that it is doing this out of politeness and also maybe it has no way to fend off the junta’s airstrikes that is making its planned administration difficult to function, including Chinese sanctions, which no doubt has been frustrating its leadership.

研究TNLA声明的措辞，它几乎听起来是出于礼貌，也可能它没有办法抵御军政府的空袭，这使得其计划中的行政难以运作，包括中国的制裁，这无疑使其领导层感到沮丧。

As for the MNDAA it has from the start of September already given in to the Chinese pressure of not cooperating with the NUG and those considered to be pro-West and would also stop the offensive further down to heartland Myanmar.

至于MNDAA，从9月初开始，它已经屈服于中国的压力，不与NUG和那些被认为是亲西方的人合作，并将停止进一步向缅甸中心地带的进攻。

Now the question for MNDAA is to strike a bargain with the junta on how much of its captured territories it may retain and if the junta is authorized and can make such a deal in front of the mediator China.

现在MNDAA面临的问题是与军政府就其占领的领土可以保留多少达成协议，以及军政府是否得到授权，可以在调解人中国面前达成这样的协议。

The same is also true to the TNLA which has an ambition to achieve Ta’ang State, within the federal union, albeit its captured territories are six-fold more than its original Palaung Self-Administered Zone (SAZ) allotted to it, according to the 2008 Constitution.

TNLA也是如此，尽管根据2008年宪法，其占领的领土是原分配给它的帕朗自治区（SAZ）的六倍，但它仍有在联邦联盟内建立达昂邦的野心。

However, the catchword here is “rights to self-defense”, which the two said EAOs included in their statements, meaning they can resort to war again anytime they thought is necessary to protect their interest.

然而，这里的流行语是“自卫权”，这两个国家表示，他们在声明中包含了这一点，这意味着他们可以在任何他们认为必要的时候再次诉诸战争来保护自己的利益。

Thus, the northern Shan State war theater will depend on if all three stakeholders can agree upon a sort of give-and-take, so that the desire of reopening of border trading may resume, according to the desired projection of the coercive-mediator-enforcer China.

因此，掸邦北部的战区将取决于所有三个利益相关者是否能达成某种妥协，以便重新开放边境贸易的愿望可能会恢复，这是强制-调解-执行中国所期望的预测。

For now, the MNDAA and TNLA will need to ponder on whether they are ready to abandon their original aspirations of uprooting of the military dictatorship system and establishment a genuine federal democratic union or will agree upon a piece-meal solution through bargaining for some territorial gains and other benefits in return for short term ceasefire.

目前，MNDAA和TNLA需要考虑的是，他们是否准备放弃推翻军事独裁制度并建立一个真正的联邦民主联盟的最初愿望，还是同意通过谈判获得一些领土和其他利益来换取短期停火的零碎解决方案。

作者：掸邦先驱新闻社        来源：掸邦先驱新闻社