经济学人：特朗普的第一枪

作者：一天一篇外刊         来源：一天一篇外刊

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导读

这篇文章讨论了美国总统特朗普宣布对来自加拿大、墨西哥和中国的商品征收关税的决定，并分析了这一政策可能引发的经济后果。特朗普在当选总统后不久便宣布，计划对来自美国邻国的商品征收25%的关税，并对中国商品额外征收10%的关税。这一决定迅速引发了金融市场的反应，全球各国政府也纷纷开始寻找应对措施。文章指出，虽然特朗普的关税政策可能带来对美国邻国，尤其是加拿大和墨西哥的重大经济冲击，但对中国商品的关税则低于特朗普之前提出的60%。此外，文章还提到，这些关税政策可能导致人民币贬值，并有可能引发更严重的贸易冲突。中国驻美大使馆对此警告称，贸易战没有赢家。作者通过引用经济学家的分析和市场预测，探讨了这一系列政策的潜在影响，并指出虽然特朗普在实施关税方面取得了初步进展，但其决定也面临着复杂的国际反应和挑战。总的来说，本文通过对特朗普贸易政策的详细分析，揭示了全球经济中关税与贸易战的深远影响，尤其是在即将上任的特朗普政府的背景下。

请各位读者思考 以下几个问题

1.特朗普决定对加拿大、墨西哥和中国的商品征收关税，您认为这一决策会对美国国内经济产生哪些影响？

2.为什么特朗普选择对中国的关税低于之前提出的60%？这背后可能有什么战略考虑？

3.文章提到特朗普的关税政策可能导致人民币贬值，您认为这种影响会对全球金融市场产生什么样的连锁反应？

4.中国驻美大使馆警告称“没有赢家”在贸易战中，您认为贸易战最终会带来哪些后果？

5.除了特朗普提出的关税政策，您认为其他国家或地区政府会采取什么措施来应对这种贸易压力？

6.特朗普宣布的关税政策会如何影响美国与加拿大和墨西哥的贸易关系？这对北美自由贸易协定（NAFTA）的未来有何影响？

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|精读|翻译|解析|

Trump wastes no time in reigniting trade wars

本篇文章选自《经济学人》Finance & economics | First shot

Donald Trump has fired the first shot. Goods arriving in America from Canada and Mexico will meet tariffs of 25% as soon as he returns to the White House, the president-elect announced on November 25th. Mr Trump also said that he would impose additional 10% tariffs on Chinese goods. With two months to go before his inauguration, the promise is rippling through financial markets. Mr Trump is not wasting any time in seeking to exert America’s influence.

特朗普打响了第一枪。11月25日，特朗普宣布，一旦入主白宫，将对加拿大和墨西哥征收25%的关税。此外，对中国商品加征10%的额外关税。距离他正式上任还有两个月，这一消息已经在金融市场上引起了波动。特朗普没有浪费时间，他已经开始加强美国的全球影响力。

Since his victory in the presidential election, some investors had speculated (and hoped) that campaign-trail tariff threats might be used merely as leverage to win concessions on other issues, without being implemented in full. Scott Bessent, a former hedge-fund manager who Mr Trump nominated to be treasury secretary on November 22nd, had suggested that Mr Trump’s tariffs could be used as an opening gambit.

自特朗普赢得总统选举以来，一些投资者猜测（并且希望）他在竞选期间提出的关税威胁只是用来向其他国家施加压力，迫使他们在这些问题上做出妥协或让步，并不会全面实施。11月22日，特朗普提名的财政部长候选人、前对冲基金经理斯科特·贝森特曾表示，特朗普的关税可能只是策略的第一步.

There is plenty of uncertainty about Mr Trump’s latest salvo, not least whether he would actually be able to implement the tariffs on his first day. But Mr Trump’s pledge suggests that steep tariffs will be the priority, and any relief will arrive only after concessions. In posts on Truth Social, his own social-media app, Mr Trump said that tariffs would stay in place until the flow of drugs and immigrants into America had been halted. The Mexican peso dropped by 1.4% to almost 21 to the dollar after Mr Trump’s remarks; the Canadian dollar fell by 0.8%, to 1.41 per greenback, its lowest in more than four years.

特朗普最新的强硬言辞，尽管存在许多不确定性，尤其是他是否真的能在上任的第一天就实施这些关税。然而，特朗普的承诺表明，高额关税将是优先事项，任何减轻措施只有在对方做出让步之后才会出现。他在自己的社交媒体平台“Truth Social”上，表示，高额关税将一直保持，直到美国的毒品和移民问题得到解决。特朗普的言论发布后，墨西哥比索兑美元下跌了1.4%，跌至接近21比1；加拿大元下跌了0.8%，1美元兑换1.41加元，创下四年多来的最低水平。

A slower introduction of tariffs would have spread out the economic damage, giving businesses dependent on cross-border trade time to prepare and adjust. This approach will front-load commercial disorder. The tariffs, which Mr Trump intends to raise by executive order, could break the terms of the US, Mexico and Canada Free Trade Agreement (USMCA), which replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement during Mr Trump’s first administration. Governments in Ottawa and Mexico City will struggle to prevent the incoming administration from violating the agreement, which is due to be reviewed

如果延迟实施关税惩罚，将会分散经济损失，给依赖跨境贸易的企业更多时间来准备和调整。但这种方法将使商业混乱提前爆发。特朗普计划通过行政命令提高关税，这可能会破坏《美国-墨西哥-加拿大自由贸易协议》（USMCA）的条款，该协议在特朗普第一次任期时取代了《北美自由贸易协议》。加拿大和墨西哥都将努力防止特朗普政府违反这一协议，而该协议也将在2026年7月进行审查。

Businesses are already building stockpiles of imported goods that might soon face steep tariffs. America’s National Retail Federation, an industry group, expects import volumes to rise by 14% year-on-year in November, compared with a 1% increase it forecast before the election. Mr Trump’s latest announcement is likely to accelerate this stockpiling.

企业们已经开始囤积会被加征高关税的进口商品。美国国家零售联合会预计，11月的进口量将比去年增加14%，而在选举前，他们预测的增幅只有1%。特朗普的最新宣布可能会加速这种囤货现象。

The sudden increase in the cost of imported products will raise prices for American consumers. Despite its own oil-and-gas boom, America still imports 4m barrels of crude a day from Canada, for instance, much of which goes to the Midwest. Companies will suffer, too. Carmakers, which have built factories in Mexico to produce vehicles for the American market, are especially vulnerable. America’s Ford and General Motors are among the companies that make cars in Mexico, along with Japan’s Toyota and Nissan, and Germany’s Volkswagen and BMW.

进口产品成本的突然增加会导致美国消费者价格上涨，尽管美国本国的石油和天然气产量增长显著。但美国仍每天从加拿大进口400万桶原油，其中大部分运往中西部。这些企业也将遭受影响。特别是墨西哥制造供美国市场的汽车制造商尤显脆弱。美国的福特和通用汽车，连同日本的丰田及日产，以及德国的大众和宝马，都在墨西哥生产汽车。

Although threats to the commercial relationship between America and China have attracted more attention, the economic damage to America’s neighbours has the potential to be far greater. Last year only 15% of China’s goods exports went to America directly, compared with 78% of Canada’s and 80% of Mexico’s. Most trade travels by land, and will be difficult to redirect to alternative markets.

尽管中美之间的商业威胁引起了广泛关注，但其实对加拿大和墨西哥的伤害会更大。去年，中国出口到美国的商品仅占15%，而加拿大和墨西哥分别有78%和80%的商品出口到美国。大部分贸易是通过陆路运输的，他们想要找到替代市场非常困难。

As the arrival point for many immigrants entering America illegally, its southern neighbour has been the subject of particular ire from Mr Trump. “The number of friction points with Mexico is just enormous,” said Adam Posen of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, speaking before Mr Trump’s announcement. “Mexico is going to be both the most harmed, and the most likely to be used as the demonstration case.”

作为许多非法移民进入美国的入境点，墨西哥一直是特朗普的愤怒指向对象。彼得森国际经济研究所的亚当·波森在此前说：“与墨西哥的冲突会非常严重，墨西哥将是受关税伤害最重的国家，还可能成为最具代表性的案例。”

Some Canadian politicians had hoped to strike a deal with Mr Trump to avoid tariffs. Doug Ford, premier of Ontario and chair of the Council of the Federation, which represents the country’s provinces, had called for Canada to reach a separate bilateral agreement with America, cutting Mexico loose. Justin Trudeau, the Canadian prime minister, has emphasised the country’s common cause with America in criticism of China’s trade practices. Such efforts do not seem to have swayed Mr Trump. For both of America’s neighbours, the question now is what exactly Mr Trump will accept to drop the tariffs.

一些加拿大政客希望与特朗普达成协议，避免征收关税。安大略省省长道格·福特以及代表加拿大各省的联邦理事会主席，曾建议加拿大单独与美国达成协议，把墨西哥排除在外。加拿大总理贾斯廷·特鲁多也强调加拿大支持美国对中国贸易的批评，双方在这一问题上站在同一阵线。然而，这些说辞并没有打动特朗普。现在，对于美国的两个邻国来说。特朗普到底需要什么条件，才会取消关税。

Chinese policymakers may, on the other hand, be a little relieved by the announcement. Although Canada and Mexico would be hit hard by the tariffs Mr Trump proposed on November 25th, the levy on Chinese goods is lower than the 60% he had previously suggested. Nomura, a bank, nevertheless expects that additional tariffs of 10% would produce a 2% fall in the Chinese yuan, reducing it to around 7.4 to the dollar, its lowest in 17 years. And there is always the potential for escalation. “No one will win a trade war or a tariff war,” warned China’s embassy in Washington.

另一方面，中国的决策者可能会对这一声明感到稍微松一口气。虽然特朗普在11月25日提出的关税会对加拿大和墨西哥造成很大影响，但对中国商品的关税比他之前喊得的60%要低。尽管如此，野村银行预计，额外的10%关税可能会导致人民币贬值2%，使人民币跌至约7.4兑1美元，为17年来的最低水平。而且，局势随时可能升级。中国驻华盛顿大使馆警告道：“没有哪个国家能在贸易战或关税战中获胜。

Governments around the world were already scrambling to find ways to avoid the tariffs Mr Trump had promised. These efforts will now be redoubled, even as Mr Trump’s latest announcement lowers their chance of success. The impact on global commerce will be immediate and extensive—and American consumers will pay the price.

各国政府也在寻求避免特朗普的关税办法。即使特朗普的最新宣布让这些努力成功的概率变小了，各国也会更加加紧行动。全球贸易将立即受到广泛影响，而美国消费者将为此付出代价。

作者：一天一篇外刊         来源：一天一篇外刊