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译者：特朗普重申了他经常说的观点，即对外国商品征收高额关税相当于一剂灵丹妙药，能够为美国带来巨额收入，并保护美国公司免受海外竞争，并促使外国公司在美国开设工厂，按照这位总统候选人的说法，他将对来自我国的商品征收60%的高额关税，并对其他所有进口商品征收最高达20%的关税。特朗普还威胁要对墨西哥企业和考虑迁往海外的美国公司征收更高的关税。主流的经济学界认为，特朗普所提议的关税几乎肯定会损害美国经济、危及就业并推高消费者价格。

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The biggest losers from Trumponomics

节选自经济学人 Finance & economics | America v the world

ACROSS CABINET tables, boardrooms and diplomatic missions this week, one topic of discussion has overshadowed all others. The sweeping victory of Donald Trump and the Republican Party in America’s elections will give huge powers to an impulsive president with unorthodox economic beliefs and a belligerent approach to negotiation. Bigwigs in government and business all over are scrambling to analyse the consequences—for America and for the rest of the world.

本周，在政商界和外交界，一个话题的讨论盖过了其他所有话题：唐纳德-特朗普（Donald Trump）和共和党在选举中大获全胜，这意味着这位具有非正统经济理念和好战谈判的总统将拥有巨大的权力。政府和商界的大佬们都在争先恐后地分析着对美国和世界的影响。

America, the world’s largest economy, issues the global reserve currency and hosts the planet’s biggest banks and firms. Its scale, depth and interwovenness with the global economy mean that even small policy changes at home can resonate far beyond its shores. Mr Trump has promised to overhaul the main pillars of the American economy, from trade and regulation to immigration. His policies stand to reshape the flows of goods, capital and labour that irrigate the world economy. This will create some winners, and many losers, all over the globe.

美国是全球最大的经济体，发行全球储备货币，并拥有世界上最大的银行和公司。与全球经济的深度交织意味着，即使是国内的小政策变化也能对外产生深远的影响。特朗普先生承诺将彻底改革美国经济的主要支柱，从贸易监管到移民。他的政策将重塑滋养全球经济的商品、资本和劳动力流向。这将创造一些少数赢家，同时在全球范围内造成更多输家。

Start with the flow of goods. Mr Trump is deeply suspicious of trade. “The most beautiful word in the dictionary is tariff,” he told a business audience in October. He has advocated a universal protectionist wall, with tariffs of 10-20% on all imported goods, in addition to much higher tariffs aimed at an unfortunate few.

从商品流动开始。特朗普对现行贸易深感怀疑。在他字典中最美丽的词是关税，十月，他对商界信徒说。他要建立一堵普遍的保护主义墙，对所有进口商品征收 10-20%的关税，还对少数的商品征收更高的关税。

Who might the administration choose to hit hardest? Mr Trump and his advisers are obsessed with bilateral balances. Any country that records a big trade surplus with America, they reckon, must be cheating Uncle Sam. The list of villains is long (see chart). The president-elect has hinted he would slap a 60% tariff on all Chinese goods, five times the current average level. Analysts reckon China’s exports to America could more than halve as a result, knocking one percentage point off China’s GDP amid already tepid growth. The impact would be limited by the fact that Mr Trump’s original tariffs, kept by Joe Biden, have already caused China’s exports to America to dwindle.

可能会对哪些国家施加最严厉的打击？特朗普先生和他的顾问们对双边平衡情有独钟。他们认为，任何与美国存在巨大贸易顺差的国家，必定是在欺骗美国政府。负面清单很长（见图表）。特朗普暗示将对中国所有商品征收 60%的关税，这是目前平均水平的五倍。分析人士认为，中国对美国的出口可能因此减半，使中国的 GDP 在增长中减少一个百分点。特朗普最初的关税已经导致中国对美国的出口减少，因此，这次征税的影响并没多大

Mr Trump has also threatened tariffs of 25% on most Mexican goods, with cars subject to much higher levies. That would badly hurt Mexico. The value of the country’s goods exports to America is equivalent to 27% of its GDP, compared with less than 3% for China. Mexico has fewer alternatives, too. More than four-fifths of its exports go to its northern neighbour.

特朗普还威胁对墨西哥大多数商品征收 25%的关税，汽车则面临更高的税率。这将对墨西哥造成严重打击。墨西哥对美国的商品出口价值相当于其 GDP 的 27%，中国则不到 3%。墨西哥的选择也少的可怜。超过五分之四的出口都流向了美国。

The EU also has reasons to fret. The bloc runs a goods-trade surplus of around $200bn with America. Goldman Sachs, a bank, forecasts that new tariffs could shave 0.5% off Europe’s GDP, with Germany, the bloc’s biggest economy, taking the worst hit. Many other countries could find themselves in the firing line. Vietnam’s trade surplus with America hit $100bn last year. Those of Canada, India, Japan, South Korea, Switzerland,  Thailand run into the tens of billions of dollars.

欧盟也有理由感到担忧。欧盟与美国的商品贸易顺差约为 2000 亿美元。高盛预测，新关税可能使欧洲的 GDP 减少 0.5%，其中德国作为该集团最大的经济体将受到最严重的打击。许多其他国家也可能成为目标。越南与美国的贸易顺差去年达到了 1000 亿美元。与加拿大、印度、日本、韩国、瑞士、和泰国的顺差也都达到了数百亿美元。

The global reallocation of capital—the second big shift—is already in full swing, even though Mr Trump will not be inaugurated for another two months. Investors expect his proposed mix of tax cuts and deregulation to boost domestic corporate profits. The S&P 500, an index of large American firms, hit fresh records from November 6th to 11th—while stocks around the rest of the world dropped by around 2%.

全球资本的重新配置已经全面展开，即使特朗普还有两个月才会宣誓就职。投资者预计他提议的减税和放松监管的组合将提升美国国内企业利润。标准普尔 500 指数（大型美国公司的指数）在 11 月 6 日至 11 日创下新纪录——而全球其他地区的股票则下跌了约 2%。