译者按：政治分析人士丹梭奈在缅共时期曾担任中央局346营政委，有20年的军旅生涯，离开缅共后，他成了一名政治分析人士，发表了大量文章，并出版了多部著作。

据《缅甸国际新闻联盟》(Burma News Internatinal)10月11日报道，缅甸著名政治分析人士丹梭奈认为，若开军不久就会夺取缅军西部军区司令部，在铲除若开邦的缅军后，若开军将继续挺进，攻打上缅甸中部和伊落瓦底三角洲地区。

由于某种原因，本文将原文中的一个国家名字改成了the relevant country，在译文中使用“有关国家”代指。

《缅甸国际新闻联盟》是多家媒体组成的媒体机构联盟。

(资料图，缅军位于若开邦安镇的西部军区司令部)

According to political analyst U Than Soe Naing of Myanmar, the Spring Revolution might intensify further, and the Arakan Army (AA) might seize control of the Western Command in Ann Township, Arakan State, in a matter of days.   

据缅甸政治分析人士丹梭奈(U Than Soe Naing)称，“春季革命”可能会进一步加剧，若开军可能会在几天内夺取位于若开邦安镇的缅军西部军区的控制权。

He added that the AA is anticipated to seize control of the Western Command shortly and that the strategic dynamics of the Spring Revolution could be drastically altered if they unite with the mainland of Myanmar.

丹梭奈补充说，预计若开军不久将夺取西部军区司令部的控制权，如果他们与缅甸本土力量联合起来，“春季革命”的战略态势可能会发生巨大变化。

"This might significantly alter the strategic landscape of the Spring Revolution." As the Bamar People's Liberation Army (BPLA) and the People's Liberation Army (PLA) gear up to advance into central Myanmar, the AA will likewise proceed once the mission of dismantling the junta forces is finished. "This suggests that the Spring Revolution is expected to intensify in the upcoming months," he stated.

丹梭奈说：“这可能会大大改变春季革命的战略格局，随着缅族人民解放军(Bamar People's Liberation Army，简称 BPLA)和(缅甸)人民解放军(People's Liberation Army，简称PLA)整装待发挺进缅甸中部。完成瓦解缅军政府部队的任务后，若开军也同样会继续挺进。这表明，春季革命有望在未来几个月内愈演愈烈。”

When questioned regarding the military status of the Arakan Army (AA), which has been seizing town after town in Arakan State, as well as the situation in central Upper Myanmar, U Than Soe Naing offered the response cited above.

若开军在若开邦攻占了一个又一个城镇，当被问及若开军的军事地位以及上缅甸中部的局势时，丹梭奈作了上述回答。

"Major General Twan Mrat Naing, the AA Commander-in-Chief, is ramping up efforts to eradicate the junta forces in Arakan State." As he mentioned, offensives are now underway in four regions at the same time, including the Western Command in Ann Township, which is anticipated to be captured by the AA within a few days. The AA is also initiating campaigns in regions such as Gwa and Taungup. "The Arakan Army aims to eliminate the junta troops across Arakan State," stated U Than Soe Naing.

丹梭奈表示：“若开军总司令通米能少将正在加紧铲除若开邦的军政府武装。”正如丹梭奈所说的，目前正在四个地区同时展开攻势，其中包括位于安镇的西部军区司令部，预计几天内就会被若开军占领。此外，若开军还在古亚镇(Gwa)和 洞鸽镇(Taungup)等地发动攻击。丹梭奈说：“若开军的目标是在整个若开邦消灭军政府部队。”   

He stated that once the junta troops are expelled from Arakan State, the conflict could extend to the Ayeyarwady Region.

丹梭奈表示，一旦军政府部队被逐出若开邦，冲突可能会扩大到伊洛瓦底省。

"I think that following Arakan State, the AA will keep focusing on additional regions." The key message I wish to highlight is that central Upper Myanmar will experience considerable military operations in the upcoming days and months. This signifies that once the junta forces are entirely eradicated from Arakan State, the AA will initiate attacks in both central Upper Myanmar and the Ayeyarwady Delta area at the same time," he stated.

丹梭奈说：“我认为，继若开邦之后，若开军将继续关注其他省、帮。我想强调的关键信息是，在接下来的几天和几个月里，缅甸上中部地区将发生相当多的军事行动。这意味着，一旦军政府部队在若开邦被彻底消灭，若开邦将同时在上缅甸中部和伊洛瓦底江三角洲地区发起攻击。”

Furthermore, U Than Soe Naing mentioned that it is time for The relevant country to reassess its ties with the Arakan Army (AA).

此外，丹梭奈还提到，现在是有关国家重新评估与若开邦关系的时候了。

"The AA will completely take over the Ann, Taungup, Sittwe, and Kyaukphyu areas to eliminate the junta troops. Nevertheless, this does not imply that the AA will assault or devastate the Kyaukphyu area, which hosts numerous Chinese interests. The relevant country's interests in Arakan State will fall under AA control, so now is the moment for The relevant country to think about how to address the AA on these issues. I think this will lead to a better outcome," he stated.

丹梭奈说：“若开军将完全接管安镇、洞鸽镇、实兑镇和皎漂镇等地，以消灭军政府部队。然而，这并不意味着若开军将攻击或破坏皎漂地区，因为该地区拥有众多有关国家利益。有关国家在若开邦的利益将受到若开军的控制，因此现在正是有关国家考虑如何在这些问题上与若开军交涉的时候。我认为这将带来更好的结果。”   

The AA has almost taken control of all battalions, tactical operation commands, and military bases in Ann Township.

若开军几乎控制了安镇所有的营、战术行动指挥部和军事基地。

At present, the AA must seize just two battalions along with the Western Command. The AA is currently initiating an assault on the 372nd battalion, the final unit that is protecting the Western Command.

目前，若开军必须夺取的只剩两个营和西部军区司令部。若开军目前正在向第 372 营发起进攻，这也是保护西部军区司令部的最后一支部队。